Sustainable Development: Original Article
Mohammad Rondhi, Rizky Yanuarti, Anik Suwandari, Joni Aji, Rokhani Rokhani, Ebban Kuntadi, Subhan Budiman, Yasuhiro Mori, Takumi Kondo, Orawan Srisompun
Agricultural land conversion (ALC) creates a dual sustainability challenge: the
loss of productive farmland to urban expansion and the conversion of forested
land into new agricultural areas. Farmland loss may reduce food production
capacity, while forest conversion for agriculture may increase environmental
degradation. These facts create a structural policy dilemma for Indonesia:
safeguarding food security while simultaneously preventing deforestation. This
study examines the patterns and drivers of land conversion in Indonesia over the
past decade, with a focus on its implications for food security and
deforestation. Using Indonesian Farmers Income Survey (Survei Pendapatan Petani,
SPP) from 2004 (n = 316,669) and 2014 (n = 415,874), where the unit of analysis
is the agricultural household, descriptive analysis and logistic regression were
employed to explore the determinants of land conversion decisions. In this
study, a land conversion decision is defined as any change in land-use status
initiated by the household, which encompasses both the conversion of existing
agricultural land to non-agricultural purposes and the expansion into new
agricultural land from non-agricultural or forested areas. Land tenure, income,
education, gender, and market access significantly influence land conversion
decisions. More importantly, the results reveal a distinct regional duality:
farmland conversion to non-agricultural uses is concentrated in Java, whereas
agricultural expansion into forested areas is more prevalent outside Java. This
duality highlights the contrasting land-use pressures faced by densely populated
urban areas and sparsely populated rural regions, indicating that Indonesia
faces two different land-use policy problems: protecting the remaining farmland
in Java and preventing agricultural expansion into forested landscapes outside
Java. These findings demonstrate that land conversion in Indonesia follows
distinct regional pathways that generate different food security and
deforestation risks. Consequently, region-specific land-use policies are needed
to protect productive farmland in Java while reducing pressure on forest
ecosystems outside Java.