•  
  •  
 

Abstract

Over the past two decades, watershed governance in Indonesia has been challenged by rapid land-use change, fragmented institutions, and limited integration of scientific evidence into policy. Previous studies have primarily evaluated watershed sustainability using hydrological or socio-economic indicators, whereas the structural relationships among governance, socio-economic, and biophysical factors remain insufficiently explored. To address this gap, this study applies the Matrix of Cross-Impact Multiplications Applied to Classification (MICMAC) method to examine direct and indirect relationships among watershed governance factors. A pentahelix stakeholder analysis involving government, academia, non-governmental organizations, media, and industry was conducted to evaluate 37 factors identified through a systematic literature review of 193 peer-reviewed publications and validated through expert assessment. Expert judgments were synthesized into a Matrix of Direct Influences (MDI) and analyzed using MICMAC to determine influence–dependence relationships. The results indicate a highly interconnected governance structure in which law enforcement regulations, watershed management regulations, coordination mechanisms, and spatial planning integration emerged as the principal driver factors. Socio-economic variables exhibited high dependence, whereas land-use patterns, water quality, forest cover, soil conservation and erosion control, and collaboration mechanisms functioned as key linkage factors. The findings identify institutional coordination, regulatory consistency, and multi-stakeholder collaboration as important leverage points for strengthening watershed governance. This study demonstrates the usefulness of MICMAC as a systems-based analytical approach for supporting evidence-informed watershed governance and provides a foundation for future scenario-based analyses.

References

Adger, W. N., Brown, K., Butler, C., & Quinn, T. (2021). Social Ecological Dynamics of Catchment Resilience. Water, 13(3), 349. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030349

Ardiansyah, Damar, A., Machfud, & Hariyadi, S. (2022). Roles and interrelation between variables: a study case of plastic waste management in Jakarta Bay. Journal of Coastal Conservation, 26(5), 41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-022-00888-x

Armas Vargas, F., Nava, L. F., Gómez Reyes, E., Olea-Olea, S., Rojas Serna, C., Sandoval Solís, S., & Meza-Rodríguez, D. (2023). Water and Environmental Resources: A Multi-Criteria Assessment of Management Approaches. Water, 15(16), 2991. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15162991

Austin, K. G., Schwantes, A., Gu, Y., & Kasibhatla, P. S. (2019). What causes deforestation in Indonesia? Environmental Research Letters, 14(2). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf6db

Brierley, G., & Fryirs, K. (2022). Truths of the Riverscape: Moving beyond command-and-control to geomorphologically informed nature-based river management. Geoscience Letters, 9(1), 14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-022-00223-0

Bryła, M., Zdralewicz, I., Lejcuś, I., Kraj, K., Dumieński, G., Tokarczyk, T., & Walczykiewicz, T. (2025). Integrated Water Resources Management for Implementing Sustainable Energy Development—Challenges and Perspectives in Poland. Sustainability, 17(3), 1169. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17031169

Carlson, K. M., Heilmayr, R., Gibbs, H. K., Noojipady, P., Burns, D. N., Morton, D. C., Walker, N. F., Paoli, G. D., & Kremen, C. (2018). Effect of oil palm sustainability certification on deforestation and fire in Indonesia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(1), 121–126. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1704728114

Chan, K. M. A., Boyd, D. R., Gould, R. K., Jetzkowitz, J., Liu, J., Muraca, B., Naidoo, R., Olmsted, P., Satterfield, T., Selomane, O., Singh, G. G., Sumaila, R., Ngo, H. T., Boedhihartono, A. K., Agard, J., de Aguiar, A. P. D., Armenteras, D., Balint, L., Barrington‐Leigh, C., … Brondízio, E. S. (2020). Levers and leverage points for pathways to sustainability. People and Nature, 2(3), 693–717. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10124

Cheng, G., Li, G., Pu, X., Chen, C., & He, Y. (2024). Advancing coupling coordination simulation in the social-human-ecological system of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area: A multi-scenario system dynamics approach. Ecological Indicators, 158, 111504. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111504

Costanza, R., de Groot, R., Braat, L., Kubiszewski, I., Fioramonti, L., Sutton, P., Farber, S., & Grasso, M. (2017). Twenty years of ecosystem services: How far have we come and how far do we still need to go? Ecosystem Services, 28, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.09.008

de Vet, H. C. W., Mokkink, L. B., Mosmuller, D. G., & Terwee, C. B. (2017). Spearman-Brown prophecy formula and Cronbach’s alpha: different faces of reliability and opportunities for new applications. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 85, 45–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2017.01.013

DeCaro, D. A., Arnold, C. A. (Tony), Frimpong Boamah, E., & Garmestani, A. S. (2017). Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance. Ecology and Society, 22(1), art33. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09154-220133

Eduardo, K., García-Nauto, N., Laqui-Estaña, J., Vásquez-Senador, M., & Cárdenas-Gaudry, M. (2024). Sustainable watersheds management in Peru: Challenges and perspectives. Scientia Agropecuaria, 15(4), 581–592. https://doi.org/10.17268/sci.agropecu.2024.043

Ferreira, M. I. P., Sakaki, G., Shaw, P., Riscado, T. N. de S., & Umbelino, L. F. (2023). Sustainable Water Management and the 2030 Agenda: Comparing Rain Forest Watersheds in Canada and Brazil by Applying an Innovative Sustainability Indicator System. Sustainability, 15(20), 14898. https://doi.org/10.3390/su152014898

Fischer, J., Abson, D. J., Dorresteijn, I., Hanspach, J., Hartel, T., Schultner, J., & Sherren, K. (2022). Using a leverage points perspective to compare social-ecological systems: a case study on rural landscapes. Ecosystems and People, 18(1), 119–130. https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2022.2032357

Flotemersch, J. E., Leibowitz, S. G., Hill, R. A., Stoddard, J. L., Thoms, M. C., & Tharme, R. E. (2016). A Watershed Integrity Definition and Assessment Approach to Support Strategic Management of Watersheds. River Research and Applications, 32(7), 1654–1671. https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.2978

Folke, C., Hahn, T., Olsson, P., & Norberg, J. (2005). Adaptive Governance of Social-Ecological Systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 30(1), 441–473. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144511

Franceschini, F., & Maisano, D. (2020). Decision concordance with incomplete expert rankings in manufacturing applications. Research in Engineering Design, 31(4), 471–490. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00163-020-00340-x

Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (I). Economica Ltd,.

Grill, G., Lehner, B., Thieme, M., Geenen, B., Tickner, D., Antonelli, F., Babu, S., Borrelli, P., Cheng, L., Crochetiere, H., Ehalt Macedo, H., Filgueiras, R., Goichot, M., Higgins, J., Hogan, Z., Lip, B., McClain, M. E., Meng, J., Mulligan, M., … Zarfl, C. (2019). Mapping the world’s free-flowing rivers. Nature, 569(7755), 215–221. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1111-9

Harwell, M. C., & Jackson, C. A. (2021). Synthesis of Two Decades of US EPA’s Ecosystem Services Research to Inform Environmental, Community and Sustainability Decision Making. Sustainability, 13(15), 8249. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158249

He, C., & James, L. A. (2021). Watershed science: Linking hydrological science with sustainable management of river basins. Science China Earth Sciences, 64(5), 677–690. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-020-9723-4

Issac, J., & Newell, R. (2025). Integrating Stakeholder Knowledge Through a Participatory Approach and Semi-Quantitative Analysis for Local Watershed Management. Systems, 13(5), 364. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13050364

Jacobs, K., Lebel, L., Buizer, J., Addams, L., Matson, P., McCullough, E., Garden, P., Saliba, G., & Finan, T. (2016). Linking knowledge with action in the pursuit of sustainable water-resources management. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(17), 4591–4596. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0813125107

Jager, N. W., Newig, J., Challies, E., & Kochskämper, E. (2020). Pathways to Implementation: Evidence on How Participation in Environmental Governance Impacts on Environmental Outcomes. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 30(3), 383–399. https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/muz034

Koebele, E. A. (2020). Cross‐Coalition Coordination in Collaborative Environmental Governance Processes. Policy Studies Journal, 48(3), 727–753. https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12306

Liu, Z., & Yang, H. (2018). The Impacts of Spatiotemporal Landscape Changes on Water Quality in Shenzhen, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(5), 1038. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15051038

López-Morales, C., & Mesa-Jurado, M. (2017). Valuation of Hidden Water Ecosystem Services: The Replacement Cost of the Aquifer System in Central Mexico. Water, 9(8), 571. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9080571

Maxwell, C. M., Langarudi, S. P., & Fernald, A. G. (2019). Simulating a Watershed-Scale Strategy to Mitigate Drought, Flooding, and Sediment Transport in Drylands. Systems, 7(4), 53. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems7040053

Meadows, D. (1999). Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System. Academy for Systems Change. https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

Mishra, B. K., Rafiei Emam, A., Masago, Y., Kumar, P., Regmi, R. K., & Fukushi, K. (2018). Assessment of future flood inundations under climate and land use change scenarios in the Ciliwung River Basin, Jakarta. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 11(S2), S1105–S1115. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12311

Newig, J., Jager, N. W., Challies, E., & Kochskämper, E. (2023). Does stakeholder participation improve environmental governance? Evidence from a meta-analysis of 305 case studies. Global Environmental Change, 82, 102705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102705

Octavianti, T., & Charles, K. (2019). The evolution of Jakarta’s flood policy over the past 400 years: The lock-in of infrastructural solutions. Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space, 37(6), 1102–1125. https://doi.org/10.1177/2399654418813578

Ostrom, E. (2009). A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems. Science, 325(5939), 419–422. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172133

Pacheco-Vega, R. (2020). Governing Urban Water Conflict through Watershed Councils—A Public Policy Analysis Approach and Critique. Water, 12(7), 1849. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071849

Pollard, S., Riddell, E., du Toit, D., Retief, D., & Ison, R. (2023). Toward adaptive water governance: the role of systemic feedbacks for learning and adaptation in the eastern transboundary rivers of South Africa. Ecology and Society, 28(1), art47. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13726-280147

Pramono, I. B., Santosa, B. H., Chulafak, G. A., Wuryanta, A., Lubis, R. F., & Setiawan, F. A. (2025). Development of A Simplified Watershed Health Assessment Framework: A Case Study in the Upper Citarum Watershed, Indonesia. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 59(6), 292–312. https://doi.org/10.35741/issn.0258-2724.59.6.21

Rahayu, H. P., Zulfa, K. I., Nurhasanah, D., Haigh, R., Amaratunga, D., & Wahdiny, I. I. (2024). Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24(6), 2045–2064. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024

Reed, M. S. (2008). Stakeholder participation for environmental management: A literature review. Biological Conservation, 141(10), 2417–2431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.07.014

Reed, M. S., Allen, K., Attlee, A., Dougill, A. J., Evans, K. L., Kenter, J. O., Hoy, J., McNab, D., Stead, S. M., Twyman, C., Scott, A. S., Smyth, M. A., Stringer, L. C., & Whittingham, M. J. (2017). A place-based approach to payments for ecosystem services. Global Environmental Change, 43, 92–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.009

Sáez-Ardura, F., Parra-Salazar, M., Vallejos-Romero, A., Rodríguez-Rodríguez, I., Cordoves-Sánchez, M., Cisternas-Irarrázabal, C., Arias-Lagos, L., Garrido-Castillo, J., Aznar-Crespo, P., & Genaro, V. (2025). Exploring the Socio-Environmental Regulation of Water—A Systematic Review of Sustainable Watershed Management. Sustainability, 17(4), 1588. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17041588

Santoro, A., Piras, F., & Yu, Q. (2023). Spatial analysis of deforestation in Indonesia in the period 1950–2017 and the role of protected areas. Biodiversity and Conservation, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-023-02679-8

Schaffer‐Smith, D., DeMeester, J. E., Tong, D., Myint, S. W., Libera, D. A., & Muenich, R. L. (2023). Landscape Pollution Source Dynamics Highlight Priority Locations for Basin‐Scale Interventions to Protect Water Quality Under Hydroclimatic Variability. Earth’s Future, 11(9), e2022EF003137. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003137

Sulistyaningsih, T., Nurmandi, A., Salahudin, S., Roziqin, A., Kamil, M., Sihidi, I. T., Romadhan, A. A., & Loilatu, M. J. (2021). Public Policy Analysis on Watershed Governance in Indonesia. Sustainability, 13(12), 6615. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126615

Sumalatha, I., V, B. A., Sugunan, R., Thethi, H. P., Pratap, B., Fallah, M. H., & Maan, P. (2024). Integrating forest management and Watershed health for Sustainable Water sources. In K. Arunkumar, D. Ramesh Kumar, P. Swaminathan, & B. Sankar (Eds.), E3S Web of Conferences (Vol. 529, p. 03015). EDP Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202452903015

Taber, K. S. (2018). The Use of Cronbach’s Alpha When Developing and Reporting Research Instruments in Science Education. Research in Science Education, 48(6), 1273–1296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11165-016-9602-2

Tarigan, S., Wiegand, K., & Slamet, B. (2018). Minimum Forest Cover Required for Sustainable Water Flow Regulation of A Watershed: A Case Study in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(1), 581–594. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-581-2018

Taslim, I., Basuni, S., Purwanto, M. Y. J., & Santikayasa, I. P. (2025). Driving Factors Influencing Watershed Management and Sustainability: A Systematic Review. Indonesian Journal of Environmental Management and Sustainability, 9(3), 115–133. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.26554/ijems.2025.9.3.115-133

Valcourt, N., Walters, J., Javernick-Will, A., Linden, K., & Hailegiorgis, B. (2020). Understanding Rural Water Services as a Complex System: An Assessment of Key Factors as Potential Leverage Points for Improved Service Sustainability. Sustainability, 12(3), 1243. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12031243

van Meerveld, H. J., Jones, J. P. G., Ghimire, C. P., Zwartendijk, B. W., Lahitiana, J., Ravelona, M., & Mulligan, M. (2021). Forest regeneration can positively contribute to local hydrological ecosystem services: Implications for forest landscape restoration. Journal of Applied Ecology, 58(4), 755–765. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13836

Waode, F., Fitryane Lihawa, Hasim, Dewi Wahyuni K. Baderan, & Marike Mahmud. (2024). Analisis Model Spasial Kondisi Lahan Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS): Mendukung Pengambilan Keputusan Berkelanjutan di DAS Paguyaman, Indonesia. Journal of International Multidisciplinary Research, 2(5), 572–585. https://doi.org/10.62504/jimr525

Waskitho, N. T., Pratama, A. A., & Muttaqin, T. (2021). Sectoral Integration in Watershed Management in Indonesia : Challenges and Recomendation. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 752(1), 012035. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/752/1/012035

Wen, J., Li, H., & Meseretchanie, A. (2023). Assessment and Prediction of the Collaborative Governance of the Water Resources, Water Conservancy Facilities, and Socio-Economic System in the Xiangjiang River Basin, China. Water, 15(20), 3630. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15203630

Wu, J., Li, W., Du, H., Wan, Y., Yang, S., & Xiao, Y. (2025). Nonlinear responses of coupled socioecological systems to land use and climate changes in the Yangtze river basin. Scientific Reports, 15(1), 6940. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-92084-8

Xingyuan, Z., & Fawen, L. (2023). Study on the correlation between river network patterns and topography in the Haihe River basin. Frontiers in Earth Science, 11, 1124124. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1124124

Yang, J., Yu, L., & Zhang, J. (2024). Impacts on Rural Community Development and Governance by Different Land Ownership: A Comparative Study Based on Two Villages in China. The European Journal of Development Research, 36(6), 1616–1635. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-024-00653-w

Yang, X., Liu, Q., Luo, X., & Zheng, Z. (2017). Spatial Regression and Prediction of Water Quality in a Watershed with Complex Pollution Sources. Scientific Reports, 7(1), 8318. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-08254-w

Zhang, K., & Tsai, J.-S. (2021). Identification of Critical Factors Influencing Prefabricated Construction Quality and Their Mutual Relationship. Sustainability, 13(19), 11081. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131911081

Additional Files
JESSD_Figures.rar (3081 kB)
High resolution Figure (1-5)
APPENDIX A-A MICMAC Factors Paguyaman.docx (19 kB)
APPENDIX A-A MICMAC Factors Paguyaman.docx
APPENDIX B-MDI Matrix MICMAC Paguyaman.xlsx (13 kB)
APPENDIX B-MDI Matrix MICMAC Paguyaman.xlsx
Download

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.