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Abstract

Agricultural land conversion (ALC) creates a dual sustainability challenge: the loss of productive farmland to urban expansion and the conversion of forested land into new agricultural areas. Farmland loss may reduce food production capacity, while forest conversion for agriculture may increase environmental degradation. These facts create a structural policy dilemma for Indonesia: safeguarding food security while simultaneously preventing deforestation. This study examines the patterns and drivers of land conversion in Indonesia over the past decade, with a focus on its implications for food security and deforestation. Using Indonesian Farmers Income Survey (Survei Pendapatan Petani, SPP) from 2004 (n = 316,669) and 2014 (n = 415,874), where the unit of analysis is the agricultural household, descriptive analysis and logistic regression were employed to explore the determinants of land conversion decisions. In this study, a land conversion decision is defined as any change in land-use status initiated by the household, which encompasses both the conversion of existing agricultural land to non-agricultural purposes and the expansion into new agricultural land from non-agricultural or forested areas. Land tenure, income, education, gender, and market access significantly influence land conversion decisions. More importantly, the results reveal a distinct regional duality: farmland conversion to non-agricultural uses is concentrated in Java, whereas agricultural expansion into forested areas is more prevalent outside Java. This duality highlights the contrasting land-use pressures faced by densely populated urban areas and sparsely populated rural regions, indicating that Indonesia faces two different land-use policy problems: protecting the remaining farmland in Java and preventing agricultural expansion into forested landscapes outside Java. These findings demonstrate that land conversion in Indonesia follows distinct regional pathways that generate different food security and deforestation risks. Consequently, region-specific land-use policies are needed to protect productive farmland in Java while reducing pressure on forest ecosystems outside Java.

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