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ASEAN Journal of Community Engagement

Article Title

Predicitive modeling, empowering women, and Covid-19 in South Sumatra, Indonesia

Abstract

Covid 19 has spread to almost to all provinces in Indonesia, including South Sumatra. Epidemiological models are required to provide evidence for public health policy makers to mitigate Covid-19. The aim of this study is 1) to create a prediction model for Covid-19 cases in South Sumatra to inform public health policy and 2) to reflect on women’s experiences to provide solutions for mitigating the impact of Covid-19. This study is informed by quantitative and qualitative methods. A quantiative modelling approach called Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) was used to predict Covid-19 cases in South Sumatra. The assumption used is that, every four days there is a doubling of Covid-19 cases, with an average of 15 days for recovery. The sources of the data are reports from the South Sumatra Provincial Government and the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia. Qualitative data was obtained through a feminist participarity action research project focused on children’s experiences of Covid-19. Reflective analysis was used to develop insights into how to empower women in respect to mitigating Covid-19. Results show that Covid-19 cases in South Sumatra are still underreported, with only 5-10% of the total estimated Covid-19 cases being reported. Modelling indicates that over 1,000 people had Covid-19 by the end of April, reaching over 150,000 by the end of May, and over a third of South Sumatra’s population is likely to be infected by the end of June. Multiple interventions are needed to reduce cases and flatten the curve. Women are key to flattening the curve and must be empowered to undertake actions from a familial base.

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