•  
  •  
 
ASEAN Journal of Community Engagement

Abstract

The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread to almost all provinces in Indonesia, including South Sumatra. Epidemiological models are required to provide evidence for public health policymakers to mitigate the virus. The aim of this study is: 1) to create a prediction model for COVID-19 cases in South Sumatra to help inform about public health policy and 2) to reflect on women’s experiences to provide solutions for mitigating the impact of COVID-19. This study uses quantitative and qualitative methods. A quantitative modeling approach called Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model is used to predict COVID-19 cases in South Sumatra. The assumption used is that every four days, a doubling of COVID-19 cases is observed, with an average of 15 days for recovery. The sources of data are reports from the South Sumatra Provincial Government and the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia (MOH RI). Qualitative data are obtained through a feminist participatory action research project, which is focused on children’s experiences of COVID-19. Reflective analysis is conducted to develop insights into how to empower women with respect to mitigating COVID-19. Results show that COVID-19 cases in South Sumatra are still underreported, with only 5%–10% of the total estimated COVID-19 cases being reported. Modeling indicates that over 1,000 people had COVID-19 by the end of April, reaching over 150,000 by the end of May, and over a third of South Sumatra’s population is likely to be infected by the end of June. Multiple interventions are needed to reduce cases and flatten the curve. Women are key to flattening this curve and must be empowered to undertake actions from a familial base.

References

Ahmed, F., Zviedrite, N., & Uzicanin, A. (2018). Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: A systematic review. BMC Public Health, 18(1).

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-018-5446-1

Ariawan, I., Riono, P., Farid, M., Hafizah, & Jusril. (2020). COVID-19 Modelling Scenarios Indonesia. In Bappenas. Jakarta.

Aylward, Bruce (WHO); Liang, W. (PRC). (2020). Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In The WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Vol. 2019).

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Bangkok post. (2020, April 3). Curfew starts on Friday. Bangkok Post.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1891910/curfew-starts-on-friday?fbclid=IwAR0VS4QJRITTY75RtbfGsh-UXFbei-Yki5DaD4Miqe7Zq5CCyiuqk3mXC-g

Bedford, J., Enria, D., Giesecke, J., Heymann, D. L., Ihekweazu, C., Kobinger, G.,... & Ungchusak, K. (2020). COVID-19: towards controlling of a pandemic. The Lancet, 395(10229), 1015–1018.

Central Statistics Agency. (2010). Jumlah dan Distribusi Penduduk (Population Number and Distribution).

https://sp2010.bps.go.id/index.php

Central Statistics Agency. (2018, October 29). Proyeksi Penduduk Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Selatan (Projection of Regency / City Population of South Sumatra Province).

https://sumsel.bps.go.id/statictable/2018/10/29/108/proyeksi-penduduk-sumatera-selatan-2010-2020.html

Brydon-Miller, M., Maguire, P., & McIntyre, A. (Eds.). (2004). Traveling companions: Feminism, teaching, and action research. London, UK: Greenwood Publishing Group.

British International School Phuket. (2014, May 17). Modelling Infectious Diseases.

https://ibmathsresources.com/2014/05/17/modelling-infectious-diseases/

Chinazzi, M., Davis, J. T., Ajelli, M., Gioannini, C., Litvinova, M., Merler, S., … Vespignani, A. (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science (New York, N.Y.).

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9757

Collins, D. J., & Abdelal, N. (2018). Spread of Disease. Calculate.

https://calculate.org.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2018/10/spread-of-disease.pdf

Communication Informatics and Statistics Department of DKI Jakarta. (2020). Perkembangan covid-19 di Jakarta per 11 mei 2020 (Development of covid-19 in Jakarta per 11 may 2020).

https://corona.jakarta.go.id/id

Crotty, M. (1998). The foundations of social research: Meaning and perspective in the research process. London, UK: SAGE.

Databoks. (2020, April 14). What is the Availability Number and Need of Ventilators in Indonesia? Databoks.

https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2020/04/14/berapa-jumlah-ketersediaan-dan-kebutuhan-ventilator-di-indonesia

Djalante, R., Lassa, J., Setiamarga, D., Mahfud, C., Sudjatma, A., Indrawan, M.,... & Gunawan, L. A. (2020). Review and analysis of current responses to COVID-19 in Indonesia: Period of January to March 2020. Progress in Disaster Science, 6, 100091.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100091

Elyazar, Iqbal; Lestari, Karina Dian, Ekawati, Lenny Lia, Lina, R. N. (2020, May 8). Indonesia belum punya kurva epidemic Covid-19: Indonesia does not yet have the Covid-19 epidemic curve: We must carefully read the government’s claims of a new case slowing down. The Conversation.

https://theconversation.com/indonesia-belum-punya-kurva-epidemi-covid-19-kita-harus-hati-hati-membaca-klaim-pemerintah-kasus-baru-melambat-137497?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=bylinewhatsappbutton&fbclid=IwAR2QwsoKZs8KaakUt5irWlWWiJLuSpo2cuZibIYPb2DWBj4d

Ferguson, N. M., Laydon, D., Nedjati-Gilani, G., Imai, N., Ainslie, K., Baguelin, M., … Ghani, A. C. (2020). Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial.Ac.Uk, (March), 3–20.

https://doi.org/10.25561/77482

Fong, M. W., Gao, H., Wong, J. Y., Xiao, J., Shiu, E. Y. C., Ryu, S., & Cowling, B. J. (2020). Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings-Social Distancing Measures. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(5), 976–984.

https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2605.190995

Gorbalenya, A. E., Baker, S. C., Baric, R. S., de Groot, R. J., Drosten, C., Gulyaeva, A. A., … Ziebuhr, J. (2020). The species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: classifying 2019-nCoV and naming it SARS-CoV-2. Nature Microbiology, 5(4), 536–544.

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-020-0695-z

Halloran, M. E., Ferguson, N. M., Eubank, S., Longini, I. M., Cummings, D. A. T., Lewis, B., … Cooley, P. (2008). Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(12), 4639–4644.

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0706849105

Hesse-Biber, S. N. (2012). Feminist research, exploring, interrogating and transforming the interconnections of epistemology, methodology and method. In S. N. Hesse-Biber (Eds.), The handbook of Feminist Research. London, UK: SAGE.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. (2017). Global Burden Disease: compare South Sumatera.

http://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/

Jategaonkar, N., & Ponic, P. (2011). Unsafe & unacceptable Housing: Health & policy implications for women leaving violent relationships. Women's Health and Urban Life, 10(1), 32-58.

http://hdl.handle.net/1807/27218

Johns Hopkins University & Medicine. (2020, July 8). COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE).

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Kanok-Nukulchai, W. (2020, April 18). Taking the fight to Covid-19 using simple mathematics. Bangkok Post.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1902320/taking-the-fight-to-covid-19-using-simple-mathematics

Kawal Covid 19. (2020, July 9). Covid-19 in Indonesia (8 july 2020).

https://web.facebook.com/KawalCOVID19/

Kramarae, C., & Spender, D. (Eds.). (1992). The knowledge explosion: Generation of feminist scholarship. New York: Teacher's college press

La, V. P., Pham, T. H., Ho, M. T., Nguyen, M. H., Nguyen, K. L. P., Vuong, T. T., … Vuong, Q. H. (2020). Policy response, social media and science journalism for the sustainability of the public health system amid the COVID-19 outbreak: The vietnam lessons. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(7), 1-27.

https://doi.org/10.3390/su12072931

Li, L., Yang, Z., Dang, Z., Meng, C., Huang, J., Meng, H., … Shao, Y. (2020). Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19. Infectious Disease Modelling, 5, 282–292.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.002

Li, R., Pei, S., Chen, B., Song, Y., Zhang, T., Yang, W., & Shaman, J. (2020). Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science (New York, N.Y.), 368(6490), 489–493.

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb3221

Lindsley, & Mann. (2020, April 8). Indonesia was in denial over coronavirus. Now it may be facing a looming disaster. The Conversation.

https://theconversation.com/indonesia-was-in-denial-over-coronavirus-now-it-may-be-facing-a-looming-disaster-135436

Lutz, C. S., Huynh, M. P., Schroeder, M., Anyatonwu, S., Dahlgren, F. S., Danyluk, G., … Biggerstaff, M. (2019). Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: A path forward using influenza forecasting examples. BMC Public Health, 19(1).

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-7966-8

Lykke, N. (2010). Feminist studies, a guide to intersectional theory, methodology and writing. New York: Routledge.

Lykes, M. B., & Coquillon, E. (2007). Participatory and action research and feminisms: Towards transformative praxis In S. N. Hesse-Biber (Ed.), Handbook of feminist research: Theory and praxis (pp. 297-326). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications.

Lykes, M. B., & HershBerg, R. M. (2012). Participatory action research and feminism: Social inequalities and transformative praxis. In S. N. Hesse-Biber (Eds.), Handbook of feminist research: Theory and praxis. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications.

Maguire, P. (1987). Doing participatory research: A feminist approach. Amherst, Massachusetts: University of Massachusetts.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Patricia_Maguire2/publication/44815297_Doing_Participatory_Research_A_Feminist_Approach/links/5712573108ae4ef745261424/Doing-Participatory-Research-A-Feminist-Approach.pdf.

Massola, James (2020, July 6). Indonesia set to become third virus hotspot in Asia, expert warns. The Sydney Morning Herald.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/indonesia-set-to-become-third-virus-hot-spot-in-asia-expert-warns-20200706-p559hi.html?fbclid=IwAR3n5eeM1p97OxBsygbEZxKhDr7LfTmuAKXgCnp3toBC6xwHjyUKeYxW3ow

Medina, A. F. (2020, April 17). Thailand Grants Visa Extensions for Foreigners Impacted by COVID-19.

https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/thailand-grants-visa-extensions-foreigners-impacted-covid-19/

Milne, G. J., Kelso, J. K., Kelly, H. A., Huband, S. T., & McVernon, J. (2008). A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: Comparison of School closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic. PLoS ONE, 3(12).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004005

Ministry of Health of RI. (2020a, April 12). Cara Mengajukan Permohonan Penetapan PSBB Untuk Solusi COVID-19 (How to Submit Application for PSBB Determination for COVID-19 Solutions).

https://covid19.kemkes.go.id/warta-infem/cara-mengajukan-permohonan-penetapan-psbb-untuk-solusi-covid-19/#.Xr-1NmgzbIU

Ministry of Health of RI. (2020b, July 8). Covid 19-Update.

https://infeksiemerging.kemkes.go.id/

Ministry of Health of RI. (2020c, May 20). DKI dan Jabar Sudah Terapkan PSBB, Pemerintah Minta Seluruh Masyarakat Disiplin Ikuti Aturan (DKI and West Java Have Implemented the PSBB, the Government Asks All Disciplinary Society to Follow the Rules).

https://www.kemkes.go.id/article/view/20041200004/dki-dan-jabar-sudah-terapkan-psbb-pemerintah-minta-seluruh-masyarakat-disiplin-ikuti-aturan.html

Ministry of Health of RI. (2020d, May 14). PSBB Kota Palembang Disetujui Menkes (Palembang City PSBB Approved by Minister of Health).

https://www.kemkes.go.id/article/view/20051300002/psbb-kota-palembang-disetujui-menkes.html

Ministry of Health of RI. (2020e, May 11). Situasi Terkini Perkembangan Coronavirus (Covid-19) 11 Mei 2020 (Current Situation of Coronavirus Development (Covid-19) May 11, 2020).

https://covid19.kemkes.go.id/situasi-infeksi-emerging/info-corona-virus/situasi-terkini-perkembangan-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-11-mei-2020/#.Xr-p9WgzbIU

Ministry of Health of RI. (2020f, April 9). Situasi Terkini Perkembangan Coronavirus (COVID-19) 9 April 2020 (Current Situation of Coronavirus Development (COVID-19) April 9, 2020).

https://infeksiemerging.kemkes.go.id/

Ministry of Health of RI. (2020g, April 1). Situasi Terkini Perkembangan Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) 2 Maret 2020 (Current Situation Development of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) March 2, 2020).

https://covid19.kemkes.go.id/situasi-infeksi-emerging/info-corona-virus/situasi-terkini-perkembangan-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-2-maret-2020/#.XsDjRGgzbIU

Nguyen, T. H. D., & Vu, D. C. (2020). Summary of the COVID-19 outbreak in Vietnam – Lessons and suggestions. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, 101651. Advance online publication.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101651

Provincial Government of South Sumatra. (2020, July 16). Sumatera Selatan Tanggap Covid-19 (South Sumatera Response Covid-19).

http://corona.sumselprov.go.id/index.php?module=home&id=1

Pusdatin Ministry of Health of RI. (2019). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia tahun 2018 (Indonesia Health Profile in 2018). Jakarta.

Putra, A. Y. (2020, March 29). Update: 2 PDP Died in Positive South Sumatra Covid-19, Had Contact with 45 People. Kompas.

https://palembang.kompas.com/read/2020/03/29/14280511/update-2-pdp-meninggal-di-sumsel-positif-covid-19-sempat-kontak-dengan-45?page=all

Regmi, K., & Naidoo, J. (2013). Understanding the processes of writing papers reflectively. Nurse researcher, 20(6), 33-39.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/

Reid, C., & Frisby, W. (2008). Continuing the journey: Articulating dimensions of Feminist Participatory Action Research (FPAR). In P. Reason & H. Bradbury (Eds.), Sage handbook of action research: Participative inquiry and practice (pp. 93-105). London, UK: SAGE.

Septianto, B. (2020, March 31). 3 Positive Cases of Corona Sumsel Have a History from Jakarta & Bogor.

https://tirto.id/3-kasus-positif-corona-sumsel-miliki-riwayat-dari-jakarta-bogor-eJXP

Smith, D., & Moore, L. (2004). The SIR Model for Spread of Disease: The Differential Equation Model. Mathematical Association of America.

https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Soeriaatmadja, W. (2020, April 7). Indonesia ranks among world’s worst in coronavirus testing rate. The Jakarta Post.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/07/indonesia-ranks-among-worlds-worst-in-coronavirus-testing-rate.html

Tamara Pilishvili, Razzaghi, H., Reed, N., Ritchey, M., & Sauber-Schatz, E. (2020). Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - United States, February 12-March 16, 2020. In MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report (Vol. 69).

https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6912e2

The Institute for Disease Modeling. (2019). Understanding the Model.

https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119197171.ch9

T., Biju. (2020). Purakala Role of Kudumbashreein Covid-19 Containment in Kerala The Pandemic and the State of Kerala. UGC Care Journal, 31, 266-274.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342344924_Purakala_Role_of_Kudumbashreein_Covid-19_Containment_in_Kerala_The_Pandemic_and_the_State_of_Kerala

The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Response Epidemiology Team. (2020). The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19)—China, 2020. China CDC Weekly, 2(8), 113–122.

https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2020.032

Turner, S. G., & Maschi, T. M. (2015). Feminist and empowerment theory and social work practice. Journal of Social Work Practice, 29(2), 151-162.

https://doi.org/10.1080/02650533.2014.941282

Wallinga, J., & Teunis, P. (2004). Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures. American Journal of Epidemiology, 160(6), 509–516.

https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwh255

World Health Organization. (2019). Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza : annex: report of systematic literature reviews (No. WHO/WHE/IHM/GIP/2019.1). In No. 2019/1.

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329439/WHO-WHE-IHM-GIP-2019.1-eng.pdf?ua=1

World Health Organization. (2020, March 11). WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on Covid-19-11 March 2020. World Health Organization.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020

Worldometer. (2020, July 8). Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic (per 8 July 2020).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Yeni, Najmah, Davies, S.G. (2020, June 8). Modelling, Women's Empowerment and Covid-19 in South Sumatra-Indonesia. Presented in International Webinar ASEAN Journal of Community Engagement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wwi12HrtQA8

Yeni, Hepiman, F., Mardiana, Najmah. (2020, June 8). PSBB versus New Normal Life. Laju Sumsel.

https://lajusumsel.com/677-baca-berita-psbb-versus-new-normal-life.html

Yoshihama, M., & Carr, E. S. (2002). Community Participatin Reconsidered: Feminist Participatory Action Research with Hmong women. Journal of Community Practice 10(4), 18.

https://doi.org/10.1300/J125v10n04_06

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.