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Abstract

This article presents a space-time scan statistic, useful for evaluating space-time cluster alarms, and illustrates the method to investigate a recent dengue mortality alarm in Indonesia. Space-time scan statistics account for multiple testing inherent in a cluster alarm. The baseline process may be any inhomogeneous Poisson process with intensity proportional to some known function. Confounders in a particular time can be adjusted for. Three cluster alarms of dengue mortality in Indonesia in 2005 were statistically significant. Space-time scan statistics are useful as screening tools for evaluating which cluster alarms merit further investigation and which clusters are probably chance occurrences.

References

[1] Anon., http://www.sinarharapan.co.id/iptek/ kesehatan/2003/0523/kes2.html, 2003. [2] Anon., http://www.indonesianembassy.it/home/ berita/0024.htm, 2005. [3] Kristina, Isminah, L. Wulandari, http://www.litbang.depkes.go.id/maskes/052004/de mamberdarah1.htm, 2004. [4] M. Kulldorff, W. Athas, E. Feuer, B. Miller, C.Key, American Journal of Public Health, 88 (1998) 1377-1380. [5] The Center of Data and Information, Health Department of Indonesia, Jakarta, 2006. [6] M. Kulldorff, A Spatial Scan Statistic. Communication in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 26 (1997) 1481-1496. [7] B.N. Neill, A.W Moore, Detecting Space-Time Cluster: Prior Work and New Direction, School of Computer Science, Pittsburgh, 2004. [8] M. Kulldorff, SatScan User Guide version 7, 2006.

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