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Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants of registered international migration to Türkiye by employing panel data regression techniques at the NUTS-2 regional level for the period 2016–2022. The results reveal that per capita income, employment, and the share of industry, services, and construction sectors in total production have a statistically significant and positive impact on migration inflows, while inflation exhibits a negative effect. However, agricultural production proportion and export performance do not appear to significantly influence regional migrant preferences. Causality tests further support the existence of both bidirectional and unidirectional relationships between economic indicators and migration. The findings underscore the importance of economic motivations in shaping migrants’ regional settlement choices, particularly for those who, after fleeing political instability in their home countries, choose to remain in Türkiye long-term. This research contributes to the limited body of macro-level empirical studies on migration in Türkiye and offers policy-relevant insights for developing regionally differentiated migration strategies.

Bahasa Abstract

Studi ini menyelidiki determinan makroekonomi dari migrasi internasional terdaftar ke Türkiye dengan menggunakan teknik regresi data panel pada tingkat regional NUTS-2 untuk periode 2016–2022. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa pendapatan per kapita, tingkat pekerjaan, dan produksi di sektor industri, jasa, dan konstruksi memiliki dampak yang signifikan secara statistik dan positif terhadap arus masuk migrasi, sementara inflasi menunjukkan efek negatif. Namun, berpengaruh signifikan terhadap preferensi migran secara regional. Uji kausalitas lebih lanjut mendukung adanya hubungan dua arah maupun satu arah antara indikator ekonomi dan migrasi. Temuan ini menekankan pentingnya motivasi ekonomi dalam membentuk pilihan pemukiman regional para migran, khususnya bagi mereka yang, setelah melarikan diri dari ketidakstabilan politik di negara asal, memilih untuk menetap jangka panjang di Türkiye. Ini memberikan kontribusi terhadap literatur empiris tingkat makro yang masih terbatas mengenai migrasi di Türkiye serta menawarkan wawasan kebijakan yang relevan untuk pengembangan strategi migrasi yang terdiferensiasi secara regional.

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