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Abstract

Previous research has shown that attitudes toward political issues have a significant influence on voting behavior (Bukari et al., 2022). However, not all issues exert equal influence, and some may have a more direct impact on voting behavior than others. This study applies network analysis within the framework of the PBS model (Brandt & Sleegers, 2021) to explore the issues that most strongly shaped voters’ choices in Indonesia’s 2014 and 2019 elections. To answer the research question, we used data from a national survey (n = 962) conducted in 2018. The analysis was conducted by evaluating the shortest path values based on mixed graphical models to estimate the strength of the relationship between attitudes toward 12 issues and the choice of political party and president. The results show that issues in the religion dimension, particularly the belief that leaders should be of the same faith and religion, consistently had a direct and shortest path with the presidential choice in both election periods (2014 election ≈ 0.03; 2019 election ≈ 0.009–0.05). At the dimension level, ANOVA analysis also shows that the shortest path between attitudes toward issues and presidential choice is significantly different across the three dimensions in both the 2014 (F(2, 9) = 8.16, p < 0.01) and 2019 (F(2, 9) = 21.31, p < 0.001) elections. Specifically, we found that the religious dimension was more closely related to voting behavior than the other dimensions. This finding was replicated in the choice of political party but only in the upcoming election and not in the previous election. Therefore, we can conclude that religious issues play a more important role in Indonesia’s political choice.

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian sebelumnya menunjukkan bahwa sikap isu politik memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap perilaku memilih (Bukari et al., 2022). Namun, tidak semua isu memiliki pengaruh langsung dalam memprediksi perilaku memilih. Pada penelitian ini, kami menggunakan analisis jejaring (Network Analysis) dengan model sistem kepercayaan politik (Brandt & Sleegers, 2021) untuk mengeksplorasi isu mana yang paling memengaruhi pilihan politik pada Pemilu yang lalu (2014) dan yang akan datang (2019) di Indonesia. Untuk menjawab pertanyaan penelitian, kami menggunakan data survei nasional (n = 962) yang dilakukan pada tahun 2018. Analisis dilakukan dengan mengevaluasi nilai Shortest Path berdasarkan Mixed Graphical Models untuk mengestimasi kekuatan hubungan antara sikap terhadap 12 isu dan pilihan partai politik serta presiden. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa isu-isu dalam dimensi agama, terutama isu keyakinan bahwa pemimpin harus seiman dan seagama, secara konsisten memiliki hubungan langsung dan jalur terpendek dengan pilihan presiden pada kedua periode pemilu (pemilu 2014 ≈ 0,03; pemilu 2019 ≈ 0,009–0,05). Pada tingkat dimensi, analisis ANOVA juga menunjukkan bahwa jarak terdekat antara sikap terhadap isu-isu pada ketiga dimensi dan pilihan presiden berbeda secara signifikan, baik di tahun 2014 (F(2, 9) = 8,16, p < 0,01) dan tahun 2019 (F(2, 9) = 21,31, p < 0,001). Secara spesifik, kami menemukan bahwa dimensi religius memiliki jarak yang lebih dekat ke perilaku memilih dibandingkan dimensi lain. Temuan ini tereplikasi pada pilihan partai politik namun hanya pada Pemilu yang akan datang dan tidak pada Pemilu sebelumnya. Oleh karena itu dapat disimpulkan bahwa isu agama memainkan peran kunci dalam pilihan politik di Indonesia.

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