Abstract

Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) adalah penyakit berbasis vektor yang menjadi masalah kesehatan masyarakat di negara-negara tropis termasuk Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan memprediksi kejadian DBD berdasarkan faktor iklim yang meliputi curah hujan, kelembaban, suhu udara dan lama penyinaran matahari serta model pengendalian. Desain penelitian adalah studi ekologi time series dengan data sekunder dari dinas kesehatan kota Surabaya meliputi kejadian DBD dan angka bebas jentik (ABJ) serta data iklim curah hujan, kelembaban, suhu udara dan lama penyinaran matahari yang didapatkan dari Badan Meteorologi dan Geofisika Badan (BMKG) stasiun perak Surabaya. Penelitian tersebut menemukan kelembaban berkorelasi dengan angka bebas jentik, tetapi ABJ tidak berkorelasi dengan jumlah kejadian DBD. Model pengendalian DBD dirediksi berdasarkan korelasi faktor iklim dan kejadian DBD, pengendalian sumber penyakit, pengendalian media transmisi dan paparan pada masyarakat. Model pengendalian DBD dapat digunakan untuk tindakan kewaspadaan dini dengan melakukan pengendalian DBD pada periode bulan Januari hingga Juni. Pada bulan tersebut, musim hujan akan berakhir, tetapi menyisakan genangan air sebagai tempat perindukan nyamuk Aedes aegypti dan peningkatan suhu udara yang meningkatkan penularan DBD.

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a vector-based diseases are a public health problem in many tropical countries, including Indonesia. This study aims to predict the incidence of dengue by climatic factors (rainfall, humidity, air temperature and solar irradiation time) and Its control model. The study design was ecological time series study, using secondary data for 3 Years i.e. 2009, 2010 and 2011. The data was the incidence of dengue larva free number from Surabaya city health department as well as climate da-ta obtained from the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency, Perak Station Surabaya. The results showed that the humidity effect on larva-free number (ABJ), but the larvae-free number had no effect on the incidence of DHF, but the larvae-free number no significant effect on the incidence of dengue. Model predictive control of DHF is based on the correlation between climate and dengue incidence, control of diseases, control of transmission. Models can be used to control dengue early warning measures to control dengue in the month of January until June period in which the month before the rainy season ends, but leaves puddles as breeding places of Aedes aegypti as well as rising the temperature increases lead to transmission of dengue fever.

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