Abstract

Penyakit demam berdarah dengue (DBD) telah menjadi penyakit endemik di kota-kota besar di Indonesia. Ramalan Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tahun 1996 menyebutkan insidens DBD di Indonesia dapat meningkat tiga kali lipat pada tahun 2070. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk membuat model dinamika sistem dengan analisis ekologi untuk mengetahui dinamika kejadian DBD dalam kaitan dengan pola variablitas iklim di DKI Jakarta. Rancangan penelitian digunakan adalah ecologic study dengan uji hipotesis, permodelan, simulasi, dan intervensi. Wawancara terhadap 844 responden untuk mengetahui tingkat pengetahuan, sikap, dan perilaku (PSP) masyarakat. Pengukuran faktor iklim meliputi curah hujan, suhu, kelembaban, intensitas cahaya, dan kadar CO2. Aspek vektor yang diukur adalah angka hinggap per jam nyamuk Aedes (AHJ) dan nyamuk istirahat per rumah (NIR). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan kasus DBD dipengaruhi curah hujan (p:0,000..), suhu lingkungan (p:0,000..), kelembaban ruang (p:0,003), kelembaban lingkungan (p:0,000..), AHJ Aedes (p:0,016), NIR Aedes (p:0,000..) dan pengetahuan masyarakat (p:0,008). Disimpulkan, faktor iklim yang paling berpengaruh terhadap kasus DBD adalah curah hujan, suhu dan kelembaban serta pengetahuan masyarakat yang rendah. Sedangkan AHJ Aedes dapat dijadikan indikator kenaikan kasus DBD.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) has become endemic in many big cities in Indonesia. It was predicted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that in 1996 the DHF in Indonesia in 2070 would be tripled. The objective of this research is to make a system dynamic model using ecological analysis to identify the dynamic of DHF cases related to the pattern of the climate variability in Jakarta. This research uses the design of ecological study with hypothesis testing, modeling, simulation, and intervention. Respondents of 844 households were interviewed to explore their knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) regarding DHF using a standard questionnaire. Precipitation, humidity, light intensity and CO2 concentration were determined per week. AHJ (Man Landing Rate) and NIR (resting habit) were determined for Aedes population density. The results indicate that the DHF cases all are influenced by precipitation (0.000), temperature ambient (0.000), indoor humidity (0.003), outdoor humidity (0.000), AHJ (0.016), NIR (0.000), and knowledge (0.008). The most influencial climate factor to the DHF cases are precipitation, temperature, humidity and the low level of the community knowledge.

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