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Abstract

Studi ini mengestimasi model spesifikasi dinamis permintaan (demand) rokok di Indonesia. Tujuannya adalah untuk menguji hipotesis kecanduan rasional perokok, dan menghitung elastisitas harga rokok jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Analisis diaplikasikan pada data agregat individu yang dibentuk dari tiga tahapan survei panel IFLS selama tahun 1993-2000. Studi ini menjajagi sejumlah teknik ekonometrik dan memilih teknik tercocok atas dasar serangkaian uji statistik. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa rokok terbukti sebagai produk yang menimbulkan kecanduan (koefisien konsumsi masa lampau positif dan signifikan pada 1%). Sedangkan koefisien negatif dan signifikan untuk konsumsi rokok masa depan menunjukan sifat kecanduan miopik, artinya para perokok bersifat tidak rasional. Studi ini juga menunjukkan permintaan rokok lebih sensitif terhadap perubahan harga untuk jangka panjang ketimbang untuk jangka pendek. Temuan bahwa perokok memiliki sifat kecanduan miopik mengharuskan pengambil kebijakan mendisain ulang strategi promosi kesehatan masyarakat tentang larangan merokok di Indonesia. Berbagi implikasi kebijakan temuan studi disajikan pula pada bagian akhir tulisan ini.

This study estimates a dynamic model specification of demand for cigarette in Indonesia. The objectives are to test the rational addiction hypothesis of cigarettes demand, and to calculate price elasticity of cigarettes in the short-run and long-term. The data for this analysis were aggregate individual data from three-wave a panel surveys of the IFLS (Indonesian Family Life Survey) from 1993-2000. This study explores several econometric approaches, and selects the best fit of several statistical measures. The results indicate that cigarette indeed an addictive good (the lags consumption coefficients are a positive with p-value

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