Abstract
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Bahasa Abstract
Pembentukan suatu currency union adalah tahap terakhir dori langkah kehijakan menuju integrasi regional. Currency union biasa didefinisikan sebagai suatu area di mana mata uang tunggal beredar. Perdebatan mengenai adopsi dari common currency oleh negara negara anggota ASEAN mulai bermunculan terutama sejak terjadinya krisis Asia 1997 don setelah Euro menjadi kenyataan pada awal tahun 1999 dan tetap bertahan dengan baik sampai sekarang. Keinginan untuk membentuk currency union di Asia Timur dan ASEAN juga dipicu oleh semakin meningkatnya integrasi dalam perdagangan melalui ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA).
Hal-hal tersebut melatarbelakangi penulis untuk mengadakan penelitian mengenai kemungkinan pembentukan currency union di ASEAN. Penelitian mengenai currency union pada umumnya dibagi menjadi tiga bagian besar, yaitu: kemungkinan pembentukan dilihat dari beberapa prasyarat pembentukan currency union (properti dari Optimum Currency Area), penghitungan lndeks Optimum Currency Area (OCA Index), dan endogeneitas dari indikator OCA. Paper ini akan memfokuskan pada studi empiris mengenai OCA index don endogeneitas dari prasyarat pembentukan currency union.
lndikator-indikator OCA dapat menjadi endogen terhadap variabel-variabel lain. Hal ini disebut sebagai endogeneitas dari indikator-indikator prasyarat pembentukan currency union. Asymmetric shocks sebagai salah satu indikator OCA endogen terhadap variabel perdagangan. Menurut Frankel dan Rose (1998), semakin tinggi level bilateral trade maka semakin besar korelasi siklus bisnis antar negara dan semakin kecil ketidaksimetrisan antar negara dalam menghadapi guncangan (shocks). Menurut Fidrmuc (2001), konvergensi siklus bisnis terjadi melalui jalur intra industry trade. Dengan menggunakan Structural VAR dan Kalman Filter akan diteliti mengenai endogeneitas dari asymmetric shocks di ASEAN terhadap variabel perdagangan. Kalman Filter akan digunakan untuk menghitung time varying correlation coefficient antara negara-negara anggota ASEAN. Filter ini menggambarkan bagaimana time path dari parameter model.
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Recommended Citation
Falianty, Telisa Aulia
(2006)
"Endogenitas dari lndikator Optimum Currency Area: Studi Empiris di Negara ASEAN,"
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia: Vol. 6:
No.
2, Article 1.
DOI: 10.7454/jepi.v6i2.2271
pp.1-28
Available at:
https://scholarhub.ui.ac.id/jepi/vol6/iss2/1
