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Abstract

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Bahasa Abstract

Paper ini mencoba menemukan nilai optimal pinjaman dan komposisi nilai tukar untuk hutang luar negeri pemerintah Indonesia (Utang Luar Negeri Pemerintah/ULNP) selama periode 1983 sampai dengan 2000. Dengan menggunakan model konsumsi dua periode, ditemukan bahwa fluktuasi nilai tukar akan memberi dampak pada pinjaman optimal melalui term of trade (TOT). Sebelum periode krisis, hasil model menunjukkan jumlah pinjaman yang relatif kecil dibandingkan data aktualnya; sementara itu selama periode kisis ekonomi modeljustru menghasilkan nilai pinjaman yang besar sebagai dana ekstra untuk mempercepat proses pemulihan. Pola tersebut menunjukkan adanya proses 'smoothing' dalam pinjaman sehingga dapat menjaga 'solvency' dari UNLP. Medel seianjutnya memprediksi komposisi mata uang yang dapat meminimumkan risiko yang ditimbulkan dari external shock seperti fluktuasi nilai tukar. Dengan menggunakan tiga mata uang utama, Dolar AS, Yen Jepang. dan DM Jerman, model ini menemukan dua faktor yang mempengaruhi komposisi tersebut. Pertama, semakin kuat koefisien korelasi dari suatu mata uang dengan effective cost of borrowing (biaya efektif peminjaman), semakin besar permintaan akan mata uang tersebut untuk dijadikan pinjaman. Kedua, semakin besar apresiasi antara rupiah dengan mata uang partnernya, semakin besar permintaan untuk mata uang tersebut.

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