•  
  •  
 

Abstract

-

Bahasa Abstract

Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara dengan sumber daya mineral yang masih tergolong besar, diantaranya minyak. Minyak menjadi penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia karena sektor ini memberi kontribusi yang masih cukup signifikan baik terhadap PDB, ekspor maupun pendapatan pemerintah. Selain itu, struktur energi primer lndonesia juga masih didominasi oleh minyak bumi.

Sebagai sumber daya yang dapat habis dan tidak terbarukan, eksploitasi minyak bumi saat ini mengandung opportunity cost di mana akan mengurangi ketersediaan minyak bumi untuk generasi mendatang. Sehingga, pertanyaan yang dapat muncul kemudian adalah: Apakah minyak bumi dieksploitasi terlalu cepat atau terlalu lambat?

Dengan menggunakan optimasi dinamik akan dilakukan simulasi yang menghasilkan alur ekstraksi (extraction path) yang optimal yang memaksimumkan nilai sekarang dari keuntungan netto akan extraksi minyak bumi. Hasil ini akan dibandingkan dengan tingkat produksi yang menggunakan perilaku 'business as usual'.

Kesimpulan yang didapat dari simulasi adalah dalam skenario optimal, cadangan akan lebih cepat habis dibandingkan skenario 'biasa' (business as usual), walaupun profit yang didapat lebih tinggi. Beberapa faktor yang harus dipertimbangkan dalam membandingkan hasil ini kemudian adalah penerimaan pemerintah, cadangan devisa dan kapasitas terpasang dari pengeboran minyak.

References

Arifin, Bustanul. Pengeloaan Sumberdaya Alam Indonesia: Perspektif Ekonomi, Etika dan Praksis Kebijakan. Erlangga, 2001.

Asian Development Bank, berbagai terbitan.

Badan Pusat Statistlk. Kantor Pusat BPS, Jakarta, berbagai terbitan.

Barnes, Philip. Indonesia: The Political Economy of Energy. Oxford University Press, 1995.

Bartlett III, Anderson G. et al. Pertamina: Indonesian National Oil. Amerasian Ltd, 1972.

Brooke Anthony, et al. GAMS Release 2.25. A User GUIDE, GAMS Development Corporation, Washington DC, 1996.

Buku Data Pertamina, berbagai terbitan.

Buku Tahunan Pertambangan dan Energi Indonesia 1989. Departemen Pertambangan dan Energi R.l, Jakarta, 1989.

Chapman, D. Environmental Economics: Theory, Application, and Policy. Addison Wesley ­Longman. Reading, MA, 2000.

Chiang, Alpha C. Elements of Dynamic Optimization, McGraw-Hill, 1992.

Conrad, John M. and Colin W. Clark. Natural Resource Economics: Notes and Problems, Cambridge Univ. Press, 1987.

Conrad, J. Resource Economics. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK, 1999.

Cuthbertson, Keith, Stephen G. Hall, and Mark P. Taylor. Applied Econometric Techniques, Hertfordshire: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992.

Dasgupta, Partha and Geoffrey Heal. "The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources." The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 41, Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources, 1974, hal. 3-28.

Dasgupta, P.S. and G.M. Heal. Economic Theory and Exhaustible Resources. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1979.

Data dan Informasi Minyak dan Gas Bumi 2001. Direktorat Jenderal Minyak dan Gas Bumi. KORPRI Sub Unit Ditjen Migas, Edisi ke-5, 2001.

Davidson, Paul. "Public Policy Problems of the Domestic Crude Oil Industry." The American Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 1, March 1963, pp. 85-108.

Departemen Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral. Pertamina Memasuki Abad Ke-21. Ditjen Migas, 2000

Departemen Pertambangan dan Energi. Laporan Akhir: Studi Penyusunan Kebijaksanaan dan Perencanaan Energi Nasional.

Departemen Pertambangan dan Energl Republik Indonesia. 55 Years of Mining and Energy Development, 2001.

Department of Energy and Mineral Resources. Mining and Energy Year Book. A New Paradigm Towards the Third Millennium. Department of Energy and Mineral Resources. Yayasan Pertambangan dan Energi, 2000.

Devarajan, Shantayanan and Anthony C. Fisher. Hotelling's. "Economics of Exhaustible Resources": Fifty Years Later. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol 19, Issue March, 13, 1981, hal. 65-73.

Enders, Walter. Applied Econometric Time Series, Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Iowa University, 1995.

Farzin, Y. Hossein. "The Effect of the Discount Rate on Depletion of Exhaustible Resources." The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 92, No. 5, 1984, pp. 841-851.

Fisher, Anthony C. Resource and Environmental Economics. Cambridge University Press, 1981.

Goldstein, Eban. Economics and the Environment. (2nd edition) Simon and Schuster, New Jersey, 1999.

Gujarati, Damodar N. Basic Econometrics, 3rd ed. McGraw-Hill, 1995.

Halvorsen, Robert and Tim R. Smith. "A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources." The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 106, Issue February 1, 1991, hal. 123-140.

Holden, Darryl and Roger Perman. "Unit Roots and Cointegration for the Economist", in Cointegration for the Applied Economist, ed. B. Bhaskara Rao, St. Martin Press, New York, 1994.

Hotelling, Harold. "The Economics of Political Economy." The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 39, No. 2, April 1931, pp. 137-175.

Kamien, Morton I and Nancy L. Schwartz. Dynamic Optimization: The Calculus of Variations and Optimal Control in Economics and Management. New York: North-Holland, 1981.

Khanna, N. and D. Chapman Time Preference, Abatement Costs, and International Climate Policy: An Appraisal of IPCC 1995. Contemporary Economic Policy, XIV, April 1996, pp. 56-66

Khanna, Neha. "On the Economics of Non-Renewable Resources." Working Paper Number 0102 Department of Economics, Binghamton University, New York, January 30, 2001.

LPEM. Laporan Akhir: Kajian Penyediaan dan Kebutuhan BBM serta Distribusi untuk Sektor Transportasi untuk Sektor Transportasi, Rumah Tangga dan Industri di Indonesia. LPEM, Jakarta, 2002.

Livernois, John R. and Russel S. Uhler. "Extraction Cost and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources." The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 95, No. 1, February 1987, pp. 195-203.

Maddala, G.S. and In-Moo Kim. Unit Roots, Cointegration and Structural Change. Cambridge University Press, 1998.

Mardanugraha, Euginia. Analisis Dinamis terhadap Perekonomian lkan Lemuru (Sardinella Longiceph) di Selat Bali. Thesis, 2000.

Nordhaus, W. Managing the Global Commons: The Economics of Climate Change. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1994.

Parfit, D. Energy Policy and the Further Future: The Social Rate of Discount. In Energy and the Future. Maclean, D. and P.G. Brown (eds). Rowman and Littlefield, Totowa, NJ, 1983, hal. 31-37.

Pindyck, Robert S. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources." The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 86, Issue 5, October 1978, pp. 841-861.

Pindyck, Robert S. and Daniel L. Rubinfeld. Econometric Models and Econometric Forecast. McGraw-Hill International Edition, 1998.

Pindyck, Robert S. and Daniel L. Rubinfeld. Microeconomics. McGraw-Hill International Edition.

Quyen, N.V. "Exhaustible Resources: A Theory of Exploration." The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, No. 4, June 1991, hal. 777-789.

Rao, B. Bhaskara. "Cointegration for The Applied Economist". St. Martin Pers, 1994.

Resosudarmo, B.P. and O. Tanujaya. "Energy Demand in Indonesia: Past and Future Trend." Indonesian Quarterly, February 30, 2002, pp. 158-174.

Sari, Agus P. et al., "Life After Oil: Energi untuk Mendukung Pembangunan yang Berkelanjutan", Pelangi, 2002.

Seda, Francisia S.S.E. Petroleum Paradox. Natural Resources and Development in Indonesia, 1967-1997. A Dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, 2001.

Soesastro, Hadi and Budi Sudarsono. Minerals and Energy in Indonesia: Production, Consumption and Trade 1966-1981. ASEAN-Australia Joint Research Project, Study on Minerals and Energy Trade & Minerals Processing, First Draft, February 1983.

Solow, R.M. The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics? American Economic Review. 64(Proceedings), 1974, hal. 1-14.

Solow, Robert M. and Frederic Y. Wan. "Extraction Cost in the Theory of Exhaustible Resources." The Bell Journal of Economics, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1976, pp. 359-370.

Statistik Ekonomi Keuangan Indonesia. Bank Indonesia, Jakarta, berbagai terbitan.

Download

Included in

Economics Commons

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.