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Abstract

Underground economics have a significant impact on economy. Underground economy leads to low potential state revenues from the tax sector. This study estimates the quarterly value of the underground economy in Indonesia from 2010 to 2023 using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The results show that the average value of the underground economy in Indonesia is IDR138,392.32 billion, equivalent to 5.36 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.72 percent of tax revenue from 2010 to 2023. GDP and tax burden variables have a positive influence on currency demand.

Bahasa Abstract

Underground economymemberikan dampak yang besar terhadap ekonomi. Underground economy menyebabkan rendahnya potensi pendapatan negara yang berasal dari sektor pajak. Penelitian ini mengestimasi nilaiunderground economy triwulanan di Indonesia tahun 2010 sampai dengan 2023 menggunakan metode Error Correction Model(ECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa rata-rata nilai underground economy di Indonesia sebesar Rp138.392,32 miliar atau setara dengan 5,36 persen terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) dan 35,72 persen terhadap penerimaan pajak tahun 2010 hingga 2023. Variabel PDB dan beban pajak memiliki pengaruh yang positif terhadap permintaan mata uang.

References

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