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Abstract

Studi ini menganalisis dampak kebijakan larangan ekspor bijih nikel (2014–2016) dan pembangunan smelter (2009–2021) terhadap PDRB per kapita dan konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita menggunakan data panel seimbang dari 81 kabupaten/kota di Sulawesi periode 2006–2021. Dampak kausal dan efek spillover dianalisis menggunakan metode Difference-in-Difference (DiD) dan Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan kebijakan larangan ekspor tidak berdampak pada kedua variabel. Pembangunan smelter justru berdampak negatif terhadap PDRB per kapita, tetapi menghasilkan efek spillover positif pada PDRBperkapita daerah tetangga dan efek spillover negatif terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita di daerah non-smelter.

Bahasa Abstract

Studi ini menganalisis dampak kebijakan larangan ekspor bijih nikel (2014-2016) dan pembangunan smelter (2009-2021) terhadap PDRB per kapita dan konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita. Menggunakan data panel seimbang dari 81 kabupaten/kota di Sulawesi periode 2006-2021. Dampak kausal dan efek spillover dianalisis menggunakan metode Difference-in-Difference (DiD) dan Spatial Durbin Model (SDM).Hasil penelitian menunjukkan kebijakan larangan ekspor tidak berdampak pada kedua variabel. Pembangunan smelter justru berdampak negatif terhadap PDRB per kapita. Namun menghasilkan efek spillover positif pada PDRB per kapita daerah tetangga dan efek spillover negatif terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga per kapitadi daerah non-smelter.

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