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Abstract

The study aims to test the existence of the N-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and to determine the impact of fossil energy consumption and economic activity such as industrialization, urbanization, and trade openness on CO2 emissions in Indonesia from 1971 to 2021, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results of this study show that the relationship between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions in Indonesia has a reversed N-shape. Industrialization and per-capita consumption of fossil energy have a positive impact, while trade openness has a negative impact on CO2 per-capita emissions both in the short and long term. Meanwhile, urbanization negatively affects CO2 emissions per capita, but only in the long run.

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji keberadaan Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) yang berbentuk N serta mengetahui pengaruh konsumsi energi fosil dan aktivitas ekonomi, yaitu industrialisasi, urbanisasi, dan keterbukaan perdagangan terhadap emisi CO2 di Indonesia tahun 1971–2021 dengan menggunakan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa hubungan antara GDP per kapita dan emisi CO2 per kapita di Indonesia memiliki bentuk N terbalik. Industrialisasi dan konsumsi energi fosil per kapita berpengaruh positif, sedangkan keterbukaan perdagangan berpengaruh negatif terhadap emisi CO2 per kapita, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun panjang. Sementara itu, urbanisasi berpengaruh negatif terhadap emisi CO2 per kapita, tetapi hanya dalam jangka panjang.

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