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Abstract

This study aims to assess the competitive advantage of foreign trade in agri-food products of five Association of South East Asia Nations (ASEAN) countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines between 2003–2022 by dividing the period into the global crisis in 2009, the trade war between China and the United States (US) in 2018, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The study built an econometric model using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indicators. It was found that the value of the RSCA distribution for the five countries has changed significantly over the years of analysis. Shocks in four countries resulted in significant changes in the competitive advantage of agri-food goods. The RSCA distribution results of Singapore and the Philippines could survive compared to other countries in the event of a global economic shock.

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji keunggulan daya saing kompetitif perdagangan luar negeri dengan produk pangan-pertanian lima negara Association of South East Asia Nations (ASEAN), yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapura, dan Filipina antara tahun 2003–2022 dengan membagi waktu menjadi krisis global pada tahun 2009, perang dagang Tiongkok dan Amerika Serikat (AS) pada tahun 2018, dan pandemi COVID-19 pada tahun 2020. Studi ini membangun model ekonometrik dengan menggunakan indikator Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) dan Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA). Hasilnya ditemukan bahwa nilai distribusi RSCA untuk kelima negara telah berubah secara signifikan dari tahun analisis. Guncangan di empat negara telah menghasilkan perubahan signifikan dalam keunggulan kompetitif barang-barang pangan-pertanian. Hasil distribusi RSCA Singapura dan Filipina menyatakan bahwa kedua negara tersebut memiliki kemampuan untuk bertahan dibandingkan negara lain apabila terdapat guncangan ekonomi global.

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