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Abstract

This study was conducted to analyze the effect of international mass media sentiment on macroeconomic indicators in five ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and Brunei Darussalam. The purpose of this study is to develop a macroeconomic forecast model based on the analysis of macroeconomic indices and international sentiment that combines GDELT and World Development Indicators (WDI) data. The research result states that each economic index variable has a correlation with the news sentiment variable. The indicators most correlated with the news sentiment variable were Current Account Balance (CAB) (0.777628), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (0.727840), and Inflation (-0.223941). Therefore, economic policymakers (governments of each country) and market participants rely on a variety of models that incorporate soft information that includes subjective measures of attitudes about current and future economic conditions.

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis pengaruh sentimen media massa internasional terhadap indikator makroekonomi di lima negara ASEAN, yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapura, dan Brunei Darussalam. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengembangkan model prakiraan makroekonomi berdasarkan hasil analisis indeks makroekonomi dan sentimen internasional yang menggabungkan data GDELT dan Indikator Perkembangan Dunia. Hasil penelitian menyebutkan bahwa setiap variabel indeks ekonomi memiliki korelasi terhadap variabel sentimen berita. Indikator yang paling berkorelasi dengan variabel sentimen berita, yaitu Current Account Balance (CAB) (0.777628), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (0.727840), dan Inflasi (-0,223941). Oleh karena itu, pembuat kebijakan ekonomi (pemerintah setiap negara) dan pelaku pasar mengandalkan beragam model yang menggabungkan informasi lunak yang mencakup ukuran subjektif mengenai sikap tentang kondisi ekonomi saat ini dan masa depan.

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