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Abstract

Crowding out analysis emphasizes the extent to which household spending on tobacco affects other baskets of household expenditures. The data used in this study is the National Socio-Economic Survey in 2016. Using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System equation, this study found that tobacco expenditure has a negative and significant effect on almost all types of household expenditures, such as fuel, education, entertainment, clothing, health, and durable goods. Household durable goods expenditure is the most displaced or sacrificed, followed by education expenditure. This finding reveals tobacco consumption has effect on human capital investment and long-run economic growth in West Sumatra.

Bahasa Abstract

Crowding out konsumsi tembakau menganalisis dampak dari peningkatan konsumsi tembakau terhadap kelompok pengeluaran rumah tangga lainnya di Sumatra Barat. Data yang digunakan adalah data Susenas tahun 2016. Dengan menggunakan metode Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa meningkatnya pengeluaran tembakau memiliki hubungan yang negatif dan signifikan terhadap hampir semua jenis pengeluaran rumah tangga, seperti makanan, bahan bakar, pendidikan, hiburan, pakaian, kesehatan, dan barang tahan lama. Pengeluaran untuk barang tahan lama dan pendidikan adalah pengeluaran yang mempunyai efek crowding-out paling tinggi. Temuan ini mengungkapkan bahwa crowding-out konsumsi tembakau memiliki pengaruh terhadap investasi modal manusia dan pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang di Sumatra Barat.

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