•  
  •  
 

Abstract

Indonesia’s provincial population projection in 2010–2035 shows West Sumatra is one of the provinces that may not experience a demographic bonus or it could be delayed to the next period. This study aims to analyze the determinants of sectoral employment absorption and its effect on economic growth with a demometric approach. The result shows that the absorption of labor in West Sumatra is influenced by economic variables (Gross Regional Domestic Product) and demographic variables (Human Development Index). As a consequence, the productivity and the quality of human resources become important factors to achieve demographic bonus in West Sumatra.

Bahasa Abstract

Proyeksi penduduk provinsi di Indonesia tahun 2010–2035 memperlihatkan bahwa Sumatra Barat merupakan salah satu provinsi yang diperkirakan tidak akan atau tertunda mendapatkan bonus demogafi. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis faktor penentu penyerapan tenaga kerja sektoral dan pengaruhnya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan pendekatan demometrik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan penyerapan tenaga kerja di Sumatra Barat dipengaruhi oleh variabel ekonomi (PDRB) dan variabel demografi (IPM). Implikasinya, peningkatan produktivitas dan kualitas SDM menjadi faktor penting dalam upaya meraih bonus demografi di Sumatra Barat.

References

[1] Apergis, N., & Rezitis, A. (2003). An examination of Okun’s law: Evidence from regional areas in Greece. Applied Economics, 35(10), 1147-1151. doi: https: //doi.org/10.1080/0003684032000066787.

[2] Astuti, H.W.,&Soetarmiyati, N. (2016). Mengukur peluang dan ancaman bonus demografi terhadap kualitas sumberdaya manusia dalam pembangunan ekonomi di Bandar Lampung. Jurnal Bisnis Darmajaya, 2(1), 57-76.

[3] Bappenas, BPS, & UNFPA. (2013). Proyeksi penduduk Indonesia 2010-2035. Badan Pusat Statistik. Diakses 22 Februari 2016 dari https://www.bappenas.go.id/files/5413/ 9148/4109/Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2010-2035.pdf.

[4] Bashir, S., Gebremedhin, T., & Chawdhry, M. A. (2014). Does self-employment enhance regional economic development. Journal of Developmental Entrepreneurship, 19(04), 1450025. doi: https://doi.org/10.1142/S1084946714500253.

[5] BPS Sumatera Barat. (2016). Laporan perekonomian Provinsi Sumatera Barat 2016. Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Barat.

[6] BPS Sumatera Barat. (2017). Keadaan ketenagakerjaan Sumatera Barat Agustus 2017. Padang: Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Barat.

[7] Blanchard, O. (2011). Macroeconomics (2nd Editon). New Jersey: Printice-Hall.

[8] Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation. Monograph Reports MR-1274-WFHF/DLPF/RF/UNPF. RAND Corporation. doi: https://doi.org/10.7249/MR1274.

[9] Darman, D. (2013). Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran: Analisis hukum Okun. TheWinners, 14(1), 1-12. doi: https://doi.org/10.21512/tw.v14i1.639.

[10] Elfindri, & Bachtiar, N. (2004). Ekonomi ketenagakerjaan. Padang: Andalas University Press.

[11] Esti, H., & Brodjonegoro, B. P. (2003). Simulasi penyerapan tenaga kerja dengan pendekatan demometrik. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 3(2), 125-138. doi: https: //doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v3i2.621.

[12] Joe, W., Dash, A. K., & Agrawal, P. (2015). Demographic transition, savings, and economic growth in China and India. IEG Working Paper, 351. Institute of Economic Growth. Diakses 13 Januari 2017 dari http://iegindia.org/upload/ publication/Workpap/wp351.pdf.

[13] Kelley, A. C. (1988). Economic consequences of population change in the Third World. Journal of Economic Literature, 26(4), 1685-1728.

[14] Kelley, A. C., & Schmidt, R. M. (1995). Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change. Demography, 32(4), 543-555. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2061674.

[15] Ledent, J. (1978). Demometrics for Regional Development. Options ‘78: a IIASA New Report, Summer Edition, pp. 1-2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Diakses 28 Desember 2015 dari https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/resources/publications/ IIASAMagazineOptions/opt78-2sum.pdf.

[16] Lee, R. (2003). The demographic transition: Three centuries of fundamental change. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 167-190.

[17] Mankiw, N. G. (2007). Makroekonomi (Edisi Keenam). Jakarta: Erlangga.

[18] Mathur, V. K., & Rosen, H. S. (1972). An econometric export base model of regional growth: A departure from conventional techniques. In A. G. Wilson (ed.), London papers in regional science: Patterns and processes in urban and regional systems, Vol. 3, pp. 31-43, London.

[19] McDonald, P. (2014). The demography of Indonesia in comparative perspective. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 50(1), 29-52. doi: https: //doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2014.896236.

[20] Moosa, I. (2008). Economic growth and unemployment in Arab countries: Is Okun’s law valid?. Journal of Development and Economic Policies, 10(2), 7-24.

[21] Mudrajad, K. (2002). A quest for industrial districts: An Empirical Study of Manufacturing Industries in Java. Paper presented at “Economic Growth and Institutional Change in Indonesia during the 19th and 20th Centuries”, Amsterdam, 25-26 February 2002. Diakses 2 Maret 2016 dari http://www.cgeh.nl/sites/default/files/ economic-growth-and-institutional-change-in-indonesia/ ecgrowthkuncoro.pdf.

[22] Narayana, M. R. (2009). Contribution of informal economy for first demographic dividend: Evidence and implications for India. In International Conference on Measuring Informal Sector in Developing Countries, 24-26 September 2009, Kathmandu, Nepal. Diakses 2 Maret 2016 dari http://www.iariw.org/papers/2009/8a%20Narayana.pdf.

[23] Putro, A. S., & Setiawan, A. H. (2013). Analisis pengaruh produk domestik regional bruto, tingkat upah minimum kota, tingkat inflasi dan beban/tanggungan penduduk terhadap pengangguran terbuka di Kota Magelang periode tahun 1990–2010. Diponegoro Journal of Economics, 2(3), 1-14.

[24] Ramdani, D. (2013). Membenahi sektor kependudukan untuk mewujudkan ketahanan nasional. Paper. Program Studi Ketahanan Nasional Sekolah Pasca Sarjana Universitas Gajah Mada.

[25] Sinaga, A. (2005). Analisis kesempatan kerja sektoral di Propinsi Sumatera Utara (Tesis, Program Pascasarjana Universitas Sumatera Utara).

[26] Sitanggang, I. R., & Nachrowi, N. D. (2004). Pengaruh struktur ekonomi pada penyerapan tenaga kerja sektoral: Analisis model demometrik di 30 propinsi pada 9 sektor di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 5(1), 103-133. doi: https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v5i1.102.

[27] Solow, R. M. (1956).Acontribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513.

[28] Tindaon, O. (2010). Analisis penyerapan tenaga kerja sektoral di Jawa Tengah (Pendekatan Demometrik) (Skripsi, Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Diponegoro).

[29] Wihastuti, L., & Rahmatullah, H. (2017). Upah Minimum Provinsi (UMP) dan penyerapan tenaga kerja di Pulau Jawa. Jurnal Gama Societa, 1(1), 96-102. doi: http: //dx.doi.org/10.22146/jgs.34054.

[30] Williamson, J. G. (2001). Demographic shocks and global factor flows. In Conference Series; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 46. Diakses 26 Juli 2016 dari http:// www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf46/conf46h1.pdf.

[31] Williamson, J. G., & Higgins, M. (2001). The accumulation and demography connection in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia. In A. Mason (ed.), Population change and economic development in East Asia: Challenges met, opportunities seized, pp. 123-154, Stanford University Press.

Download

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.