•  
  •  
 

Abstract

This study examines the effect of the population structure transition on economic growth using a panel data of 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2000 to 2015. The main working-age group has a positive effect on economic growth, while the middle age group has a negative effect. Furthermore, population growth has a negative effect on economic growth. The effect of population density on economic growth is very small. There is no difference on average economic growth inter-island in Indonesia except for Sulawesi Island which has a higher average economic growth compared to Java Island.

Bahasa Abstract

Paper ini mengkaji pengaruh transisi struktur penduduk terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi menggunakan data panel dari 33 provinsi di Indonesia dari tahun 2000 hingga 2015. Indonesia tengah memasuki masa transisi penduduk yang berakibat pada meningkatnya penduduk usia kerja dan menurunnya rasio ketergantungan. Kelompok usia kerja utama berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan kelompok usia paruh baya berpengaruh negatif. Selanjutnya pertumbuhan penduduk berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pengaruh kepadatan penduduk terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sangat kecil. Tidak ada perbedaan rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi antar pulau di Indonesia kecuali Pulau Sulawesi yang memiliki rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan Pulau Jawa.

References

[1] Adioetomo, S. M. (2016). Regional development in the era of demographic changes: The case of Indonesia. In D. S. Pratomo, D. Satria, B. P. Resosudarmo, D. S. Priyarsono,&H. Handra (eds.), Demographic changes and regional development in Indonesia [IRSA Book Series on Regional Development, 15] (pp. 37-38), Brawijaya University Press (UB-Press).

[2] Aksoy, Y., Basso, H. S., & Smith, R. P. (2017). Medium-run implications of changing demographic structures for the macro-economy. National Institute Economic Review, 241(1), R58-R64. doi: https: //doi.org/10.1177%2F002795011724100114.

[3] Andersson, B. (2001). Scandinavian evidence on growth and age structure. Regional Studies, 35(5), 377-390. doi: 10.1080/713693829.

[4] BKPM. (2017). Data Perkembangan Investasi Berdasar Lokasi. NSWi Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal. Diakses 7 Oktober 2017 dari http://nswi.bkpm.go.id/ibmcognos/ cgi-bin/cognos.cgi.

[5] Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455. doi: https: //doi.org/10.1093/wber/12.3.419.

[6] Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Malaney, P. N. (2000). Population dynamics and economic growth in Asia. Population and Development Review, 26, 257-290.

[7] Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation.

[8] Bloom, D. E., & Finlay, J. E. (2009). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review, 4(1), 45-64. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2009.01106.x.

[9] BPS. (2001). Statistik Indonesia statistical year book of Indonesia 2000. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[10] BPS. (2002). Proyeksi penduduk Indonesia menurut kelompok umur dan jenis kelamin 2000–2010. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[11] BPS. (2003). Statistik Indonesia statistical year book of Indonesia 2002. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[12] BPS. (2008). Proyeksi penduduk Indonesia (Indonesian population projection) 2005–2025. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[13] BPS. (2013a). Buletin statistik perdagangan luar negeri foreign trade statistical buletin ekspor/exports Desember 2012. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[14] BPS. (2013b). Buletin statistik perdagangan luar negeri foreign trade statistical buletin impor/imports Desember 2012. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[15] BPS. (2013c). Proyeksi penduduk Indonesia (Indonesian population projection) 2010–2035. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[16] BPS. (2014a). Buletin statistik perdagangan luar negeri foreign trade statistical buletin ekspor/exports Desember 2013. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[17] BPS. (2014b). Buletin statistik perdagangan luar negeri foreign trade statistical buletin impor/imports Desember 2013. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[18] BPS. (2014c). Proyeksi penduduk Indonesia umur tertentu dan umur satu tahunan 2010–2025. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[19] BPS. (2015a). Buletin statistik perdagangan luar negeri foreign trade statistical buletin ekspor/exports Desember 2014. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[20] BPS. (2015b). Buletin statistik perdagangan luar negeri foreign trade statistical buletin impor/imports Desember 2014. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[21] BPS. (2016a). Buletin statistik perdagangan luar negeri foreign trade statistical buletin ekspor/exports Desember 2015. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[22] BPS. (2016b). Buletin statistik perdagangan luar negeri foreign trade statistical buletin impor/imports Desember 2015. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[23] BPS. (2016c). Profil penduduk hasil SUPAS 2015. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[24] BPS. (2016d). Penduduk Indonesia hasil SUPAS2015. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[25] BPS. (2017a). [Seri 2010] Produk Domestik Regional Bruto atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2010 menurut provinsi, 2010–2016 (miliar rupiah). Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik. Diakses 7 Oktober 2017 dari https://www.bps.go.id/dynamictable/2015/10/07/956/-seri-2010-produk-domestik-regional-bruto-atas-dasarharga- konstan-2010-menurut-provinsi-2010-2016-miliarrupiah-.html.

[26] BPS. (2017b). Data komponen IPM. IPM online. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik. Diakses 8 Oktober 2017 dari http://ipm.bps.go.id/data/nasional.

[27] Brunow, S., & Hirte, G.(2006). Age structure and regional economic growth. Jahrbuch f ¨ur Regionalwissenschaft [Review of Regional Research], 26, 3-23. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10037-005-0075-4.

[28] Effendi. (2016). Indonesian demographic transition and economic growth. In D. S. Pratomo, D. Satria, B. P. Resosudarmo, D. S. Priyarsono, & H. Handra (Eds.), Demographic changes and regional development in Indonesia. IRSA Book Series on Regional Development No. 15, pp. 37-38, Brawijaya University Press.

[29] Goeltom, M.,&Juhro, S. M. (2013). Indonesia. In A. Kohsaka (ed.), Aging and economic growth in the Pacific Region, pp. 108-136, Routledge, London and New York.

[30] Indonesia, R. (1998). Undang-Undang No. 13 Tahun 1998 tentang Kesejahteraan Lanjut Usia. Diakses 3 Januari 2018 dari http://www.hukumonline.com/pusatdata/detail/17464/ node/573/undangundang-nomor-13-tahun-1998.

[31] Islam, N. (1995). Growth empirics: A panel data approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4), 1127–1170. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2946651.

[32] Kelley, A. C., & Schmidt, R. M. (2005). Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis. Journal of Population Economics, 18(2), 275-300. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-005-0222-9.

[33] Kogel, T. (2005). Youth dependency and total factor productivity. Journal of Development Economics, 76(1), 147-173. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.11.003.

[34] Lindh, T., & Malmberg, B. (1999). Age structure e ects and growth in the OECD, 1950–1990. Journal of Population Economics, 12(3), 431-449. doi: https: //doi.org/10.1007/s001480050107.

[35] Lindh, T., & Malmberg, B. (2009). European Union economic growth and the age structure of the population. Economic Change and Restructuring, 42(3), 159-187. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-008-9057-1.

[36] Liu, S., & Hu, A. (2013). Demographic change and economic growth: Theory and evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 35, 71–77. doi: https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.041.

[37] Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437. doi: https: //doi.org/10.2307/2118477.

[38] Menike, H. R. A. (2016). Impact of demographic dividend on the economy of developed and developing countries (Felicitation Volume of Senior Professor Prema Podimenike, Department of Economics, University of Kelaniya), pp. 170-176, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka. Diakses 8 Oktober 2017 dari http://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/12065.

[39] Modigliani, F. (1986). Life cycle, individual thrift, and the wealth of nations. Science, 234(4777), 704-712. doi: 10.1126/science.234.4777.704.

[40] Rajan, S. I., & James, K. S. (2007). Demographic transition and economic development in Kerala: The role of emigration. Project Report Submitted to South Asia Network of Economic Research Initiatives (SANEI) as Part of the MIR Study.

[41] Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2014). Economic development (12th edn.), Pearson, New Jersey.

[42] Uddin, G. A., Alam, K., & Gow, J. (2016). Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 52, 23-33. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2016.08.002.

[43] Wei, Z., & Hao, R. (2010). Demographic structure and economic growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 38(4), 472-491. doi: https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2010.08.002.

[44] Yi, J. Y., & Li, X. Q. (2017). The study on the effect of population age structure change on economic growth in Chongqing. DEStech Transactions on Economics, Business and Management. 4th International Conference on Economics and Management (ICEM), pp. 278-284. doi: 10.12783/dtem/icem2017/13122. Diakses 8 Oktober 2017 dari http://www.dpi-proceedings.com/index.php/ dtem/article/view/13122.

[45] Zhang, H., Zhang, H., & Zhang, J. (2015). Demographic age structure and economic development: Evidence from Chinese provinces. Journal of Comparative Economics, 43(1), 170-185. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2014.07.002.

Download

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.