•  
  •  
 

Abstract

Controlling food inflation in Indonesia is essential mainly caused by its persistent and relatively significant impact on the poor’s purchasing power compare to other commodities. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy on food inflation stabilization in Indonesia. By utilizing Structural Vector Autoregression, the empirical results provided here show that monetary policy does effectively prevent the spillover effect of food to non-food inflation. In addition to that, the exchange rate may play some role in the longer period to affect the volatility of food inflation.

Bahasa Abstract

Pengendalian inflasi makanan penting untuk dilakukan di Indonesia terutama karena dua hal, yaitu sifat inflasi makanan yang persisten dan dampaknya terhadap penurunan daya beli keluarga miskin yang relatif tinggi dibandingkan dengan komoditas lainnya. Dengan demikian, tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui efektivitas dari kebijakan moneter terhadap pengendalian inflasi makanan di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan metode Structural Vector Autoregression, hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan moneter secara efektif dapat mencegah dampak spillover inflasi makanan ke inflasi non-makanan. Selain itu, stabilitas nilai tukar dapat memiliki peran untuk mengurangi volatilitas inflasi makanan terutama pada jangka panjang.

References

[1] Affandi, Y. (2011). Unveiling Stubborn Inflation in Indonesia. Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 59(1), 47–70.

[2] Agenor, P.-R., Izquierdo, A., & Jensen, H. T. (Eds.). (2007). Adjustment Policies, Poverty, and Unemployment: The IMMPA Framework. Australia: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

[3] Agung, J. (1998). Financial Deregulation and the Bank Lending Channel in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia. Asian Economic Journal, 12(3), 273–294. DOI: 10.1111/1467-8381.00063.

[4] Alamsyah, H. (2008). Persistensi Inflasi dan Implikasinya Terhadap Pilihan Kebijakan Moneter di Indonesia. Disertasi. Program Pascasarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia.

[5] Anand, R., Ding, D., & Tulin, V. (2014). Food Inflation in India: The Role for Monetary Policy. IMF Working Paper WP/14/78. International Monetary Fund. Diakses dari https://www.imf.org/ff/media/Websites/ IMF/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/ wp14178.ashx. Tanggal akses 22 Maret 2015.

[6] Azis, I. (2008). Macroeconomics Policy and Poverty. ADB Institute Discussion Papers, 111. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. Diakses dari https://www.adb.org/sites/ default/files/publication/156750/adbi-dp111.pdf. Tanggal akses 15 Februari 2015.

[7] BPS. (2013). Pola Pengeluaran dan Konsumsi Penduduk Indonesia 2013. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

[8] Bhattacharya, R., Rao, N., & Gupta, A. S. (2013). Understanding Food Inflation in India. ADB South Asia Working Paper Series, 26. Manila: Asian Development Bank. Diakses dari https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/ 110974/south-asia-wp-026.pdf. Tanggal akses 11 Maret 2014.

[9] Berkelmans, L. (2005). Credit and Monetary Policy: An Australian SVAR. Research Discussion Paper, 2005-06. Economic Research Department – Reserve Bank of Australia. Diakses dari http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2005/ pdf/rdp2005-06.pdf. Tanggal akses 18 Desember 2016.

[10] Bernanke, B. S., & Mihov, I. (1998). Measuring Monetary Policy. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 869–902. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/003355398555775.

[11] Bernanke, B. S., Boivin, J., & Eliasz, P. (2005). Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(1), 387–422. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/ 0033553053327452.

[12] Brischetto, A., & Voss, G. (1999). A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia. Research Discussion Paper, 1999-11. Economic Research Department – Reserve Bank of Australia. Diakses dari https://www.rba. gov.au/publications/rdp/1999/pdf/rdp1999-11.pdf. Tanggal akses 18 Desember 2016.

[13] Cheung, L., Szeto, J., Tam, C.-S., & Chan, S. (2008, September). Rising Food Prices in Asia and Implications for Monetary Policy. Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin. Diakses dari http://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/ publication-and-research/quarterly-bulletin/qb200809/ fa2 print.pdf. Tanggal akses 23 April 2015.

[14] Enders, W. (2003). Applied Econometric Time Series, 2nd Edition. USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

[15] Goeltom, M. S. (2008). The Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Indonesia. BIS Papers, 35, pp. 309–332. Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Diakses dari http: //www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap35n.pdf. Tanggal akses 2 September 2014.

[16] Granger, C.W. J., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111–120. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7.

[17] Harmanta. (2009). Kredibilitas Kebijakan Moneter dan Dampaknya terhadap Persistensi Inflasi dan Strategi Disinflasi di Indonesia: Dengan Model Dynamic Stochastic General Equlibrium (DSGE). Disertasi. Program Pascasarjana Ilmu Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia.

[18] Johansen, S. (2002, October). The Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model. Preprint No. 14. Department of Theoretical Statistics University of Copenhagen.

[19] Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2000). Exchange Rate Anomalies in the Industrial Countries: A Solution with a Structural VAR Approach. Journal of Monetary Economics, 45(3), 561–586. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00010-6.

[20] Kusmiarso, B., Sukawati, E., Pambudi, S., Angkoro, D., Prasmuko, A., & Hafidz, I. S. (2002). Interest Rate Channel of Monetary Transmission in Indonesia. In Warjiyo P., & Agung J. (Eds), Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Indonesia, pp. 27–67. Direktorat Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Moneter Bank Indonesia.

[21] Moreno, R., & Villar, A. (2010). Inflation Expectations, Persistence and Monetary Policy. BIS Papers, 49, pp. 77– 92. Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Diakses dari http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap49e.pdf. Tanggal akses 8 Juli 2015.

[22] Pratikto, R., Ikhsan, M., & Mahi, B. R. (2015). Unequal Impact of Price Changes in Indonesia. Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 61(3), 180–195.

[23] Rosengren, E. S. (2011). A Look Inside a Key Economic Debate: How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Price Increases Driven by Supply Shocks?. Remarks to the Massachusetts Chapter of NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Develop- ment Association, May, 4. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Diakses dari https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/Speeches/PDF/050411.pdf. Tanggal akses 29 April 2015.

[24] Sbordone, A. M. (2007). Inflation Persistence: Alternative Interpretation and Policy Implications. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 286. Diakses dari https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/ research/staff reports/sr286.pdf. Tanggal akses 8 Juli 2015.

[25] Schroeder, L. D., Sjoquist, D. L., & Stephan, P. E. (1986). Understanding Regression Analysis: An Introductory Guide. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.

[26] Sims, C. A., Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1990). Inference in Linear Time Series Models with some Unit Roots. Econometrica, 58(1), 113–144. DOI: 10.2307/2938337.

[27] Son, H. H. (2008). Has Inflation Hurt the Poor? Regional Analysis in the Philippines. ERD Working Paper Series, 112. Manila: Asian Development Bank (ADB).

[28] Son, H. H., & Kakwani, N. (2009). Measuring the Impact of Price Changes on Poverty. Journal of Economic Inequality, 7(4), 395–410. DOI: 10.1007/s10888-008-9093-0.

[29] Sudaryanto, T. (2011). Policy Response to the Impact of Global Food Crisis in Indonesia. Food and Fertilizer Technology Center (FFTC). Diakses dari http://www.agnet.org/ htmlarea file/library/20110726105258/eb624.pdf. Tanggal akses 25 Februari 2015.

[30] UNDP. (2004). Indonesia Human Development Report 2004: The Economics of Democracy: Financing Human Development in Indonesia. BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Bappenas and UNDP Indonesia. Diakses dari http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/ files/indonesia 2004 en.pdf. Tanggal akses 21 Januari 2014.

[31] Walsh, J. P. (2011). Reconsidering The Role of Food Prices in Inflation. IMF Working Paper, WP/11/71. Asia and Pacific Department – International Monetary Fund.

[32] Yanuarti, T. (2007, October). Has Inflation Persistence in Indonesia Changed? Bank Indonesia Working Paper, WP/10/2007. Diakses dari http: //www.bi.go.id/en/publikasi/lain/kertas-kerja/Documents/ 8b2d297038da4581a81c587b2001df04WP200710.pdf. Tanggal akses 20 Februari 2015.

[33] Zhang, W., & Law, D. (2010). What Drives China’s Food-Price Inflation and How Does It Affect the Aggregate Inflation? Hong Kong Monetary Authority Working Paper, 06/2010. Diakses dari http://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/ eng/publication-and-research/research/working-papers/ HKMAWP10 06 full.pdf. Tanggal akses 15 Februari 2014.

Download

Included in

Economics Commons

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.