•  
  •  
 

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of fiscal policy in Indonesia based on a VAR ap­ proach. Fiscal policy shocks are identified as a structural residuals related to unexpected government expenditures and tax revenues. Impulse responses are then used to simulate the dynamic response of key macroeconomics variables of shocks. The analysis shows that GDP responses negatively to tax shocks, and positively to expenditure shock. Moreover, disposable income and private consumption react negatively to taxation and positively to government expenditures. Altogether the results are consistent with that of Keynesian models.

References

Alfinnan, L. & Sutriono, E. (2006). Hubungan Pengeluaran Pemerintah dan Produk Domestik Bruto dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Granger Causality dan VAR. furnal Keuangan Publik, 4, 25-66.

Berument, H. & Pasaogullari, M. (2003). Effects of the Real Exchange Rate on Output and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey. The Developing Economies, 41(4), 401-435.

Baxter, M. & King, R. G. (1993). Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium. American Economic Review, 83,315 -334.

Blanchard, 0. & Perotti, R. (1999). An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output. NBER Working Paper, 7269.

Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia. (2009). Mengatasi Dampak Krisis Global Melalui Program Stimulus Fiskal APBN 2009. Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia.

Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia. (2008). Nota Keuangan dan APBN Tahun 1969/1970-2008. Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia.

Devereux, M. B., Head, A. C. & Lapham, B. J. (1996). Monopolistic Competition, Increasing Returns, and the Effects of Government Spending. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 28, 233-254.

Enders, W. J. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Fatas, A. & Mihov, I. (2001). The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence. draft, INSEAD.

Holmes, J. M. & Hutton, P.A. (1990). On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditures and National Income. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 72(1), 87-95.

Hoppner, F. (2001). A VAR Analysis of the Effects of Fiscal Policy in Germany. Bonn: Institute for International Economics.

International Monetary Fund. (2009). World Economic Outlook.

Kamin, S. B. & Rogers, J. H. (2000). Output and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: An Application to Mexico. Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, 61(1), 85-109.

Landau, D. (1986). Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1(10), 35-75.

Mountford, A. & Uhlig, H. (2005). What are the Effests of Fiscal Policy Shock?. SFB 649 Discussion Paper, 2005-039.

Perotti, R. (2002). Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries. Working paper, European University Institute and Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Phillips, P. (1986). Understanding Spurious Regressions in·Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 31,311-340.

Sahni, B. S. & Singh, B. (1984). On the Causal Directions between National Income and Government Expenditure in Canada. Public Finance Finances Publique, 39(3), 359-93,

Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48,1-49.

Vinh, N. T., & Fujita, S. (2007, Maret). The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Output and Inflation in Vietnam: A VAR Approach March, PSU Discussion Paper, 0625.

Included in

Economics Commons

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.