•  
  •  
 

Abstract

Social security is a form of social protection to ensure that all people can meet their basic needs for a decent life. One type of social security program is the Work Accident Insurance (Jaminan Kecelakaan Kerja, JKK). The JKK is held with the aim of ensuring that participants receive health care benefits and cash compensation if a worker has a work accident or suffers from an occupational disease. The amount of the JKK premium contribution is a certain percentage of wages or income which is then deposited by the employer to the social security administering agency. Because the organizing body receives JKK premium contributions on a monthly basis, the amount of JKK premiums paid can be predicted empirically. This study uses time series analysis to predict the amount of JKK premium contributions paid to a social security agency in Indonesia. The data used is JKK premium contribution data per month from 2017 to 2019. The best model to forecast JKK premium contributions is the ����������(0,1,1)model. This model was chosen because it has a small MSE value and also the Ljung-Box p-value which indicates the independence between errors.

References

Hatidja D. 2011. Penerapan Model ARIMA untuk Memprediksi Harga Saham PT Telkom Tbk. Jurnal Ilmiah Sains. Vol. 11 No. 1. Jannah AU, Azzuhri M. 2016. Pengaruh Jaminan Sosial Tenaga Kerja terhadap Kinerja Karyawan yang Dimediasi oleh Kepuasan Kerja (Studi pada PG Kebon Agung Malang). Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Universitas Brawijaya. Vol 4 No 2. Juanda B , Junaidi. 2012. Ekonometrika Deret Waktu. IPB Press. Bogor Karimlou M, Salehi M, Imani M, Hosseini HF. Dehnad A, Vahabi N, Bakhtiyari M. 2015. Work-related Accidents among the Iranian Population: a Time Series Analysis, 2000– 2011. International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health. Vol 21 No 4. Marina I, Lestari DA. 2017. Pentingnya Data Deret Waktu dalam Melakukan Perencanaan Produksi. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Multi disiplin Ilmu dan Call of Paper Unisbank ke 3. Maulana HA. 2018. Pemodelan Deret Waktu dan Peramalan Curah Hujan pada Dua Belas Stasiun di Bogor. Jurnal Matematika, Statistika, dan Komputasi. Vol 15 No 1 : 50- 63. Rosadi D. 2011. Analisis Ekonometrika dan Runtun Waktu Terapan dengan R. CV Andi Offset. Yogyakarta. Taha T, Ibrahim Y, Minai MS. 2011. Forecasting General Insurance Loss Reserves in Egypt. African Journal of Business Management . Vol. 5(22), pp. 8961-8970. [UU ] Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia No 40 Tahun 2004 Tentang Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional .

Download

Share

COinS