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Abstract

Traffic accident ranks the ninth largest of the cause of death in Indonesia. The most of researches studying Indonesia on traffic accidents were only blaming on human, motor vehicles, and environment as main culprits, not incorporating economic factors into the models. This study aims to analyze the impact of real gasoline prices on traffic accident in Indonesia and the factors of influence them. This research employs time series data from 1970 to 2013 with OLS analysis world crude oil prices as instrument variable. The estimator results show that real price of gasoline and the policy of usage of motorcycle light insignificant on traffic accident. Meanwhile, real GDP and asphalt roads significantly decrease the traffic accident. However, motorcycles significantly increase the traffic accident.

Bahasa Abstract

Kecelakaan lalu lintas menempati urutan kesembilan penyebab kematian di Indonesia. Kebanyakan penelitian kecelakaan di Indoneia menitikberatkan pada faktor manusia, kendaraan, dan lingkungan, tetapi belum ada yang memasukkan faktor-faktor ekonomi ke dalam modelnya. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah ingin mengetahui pengaruh harga riil bensin terhadap kecelakaan lalu lintas di Indonesia serta faktor-faktor yang memengaruhinya. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series Indonesia dari tahun 1970 hingga 2013 dan menggunakan OLS dengan variabel instrumen harga minyak mentah dunia. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa harga riil bensin dan kebijakan penggunaan lampu utama sepeda motor tidak signifikan terhadap kecelakaan lalu lintas. Sedangkan PDB riil dan jalan aspal signifikan berpengaruh menurunkan kecelakaan. Namun, sepeda motor berdampak signifikan meningkatkan kecelakaan lalu lintas.

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