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Abstract

This study examines the determinants of budget absorption within Indonesian provincial governments by assessing the impact of digital government maturity and regional fiscal capacity. Digital maturity is operationalized using the Electronic-Based Government System (SPBE) index, while fiscal capacity is proxied by the Natural Logarithm of Local Genuine Revenue (Ln_PAD). Adopting a quantitative approach with a cross-sectional design encompassing 38 provinces in 2024, the data were evaluated through multiple linear regression analysis. The empirical findings demonstrate that neither digital maturity (p-value = 0.966) nor fiscal capacity (p-value = 0.774) exhibits a statistically significant relationship with budget absorption, both partially and simultaneously (p-value = 0.948). The low coefficient of determination (R² = 0.003) indicates that variations in regional expenditure realization are more heavily influenced by other factors outside the research model. These findings indicate that an increase in digital maturity and fiscal capacity has not been followed by an increase in budget absorption within the 2024 cross-sectional model. Future research should implement a panel data approach to observe long-term dynamics.

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini menguji determinan penyerapan anggaran pada pemerintah provinsi di Indonesia dengan mengevaluasi pengaruh kematangan digital pemerintahan dan kapasitas fiskal daerah. Kematangan digital dioperasionalkan melalui indeks Sistem Pemerintahan Berbasis Elektronik (SPBE), sedangkan kapasitas fiskal diproksikan menggunakan Logaritma Natural Pendapatan Asli Daerah (Ln_PAD). Menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan desain data lintas bagian (cross-section) yang mencakup 38 provinsi pada tahun 2024, data diestimasi melalui analisis regresi linear berganda. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa kematangan digital (p-value = 0,966) maupun kapasitas fiskal (p-value = 0,774) tidak menunjukkan hubungan yang signifikan secara statistik terhadap penyerapan anggaran, baik secara parsial maupun simultan (p-value = 0,948). Nilai koefisien determinasi yang sangat rendah (R² = 0,003) mengindikasikan bahwa variasi realisasi belanja daerah lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh faktor lain di luar model penelitian. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan kematangan digital dan kapasitas fiskal belum diikuti oleh peningkatan penyerapan anggaran pada model cross-section tahun 2024. Penelitian selanjutnya disarankan menerapkan pendekatan data panel untuk mengamati dinamika jangka panjang.

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