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Abstract

This article tempts to verify the intricate dynamics of political alliances between Islamist groups and opposition parties in Indonesian elections, focusing on the 2018 West Java gubernatorial contest. The study employs exit poll data, investigating the relationship between religiosity, politico-religious narratives, and voting behaviour. While the mobilising power of Islamist groups appeals to political parties, creating a temporary alliance, these do not guarantee electoral triumph even in a conservative region. The politico-religious propaganda, in principle, consolidates Islamist-inclined voters. Despite high levels of religiosity among voters, the alliance's strategies fail to convey this religious mobilisation into broad electoral success. This underscores that the efficacy of such campaigns is contextually dependent and shaped by local socio-political conditions. However, the alliances offer potential political leverage, suggesting an enduring interplay between Islamist groups and political parties in the Indonesian electoral landscape. This exploration contributes to understanding the complexities of Islamist mobilisation within multi-level electoral contests.

Bahasa Abstract

Artikel ini mengkaji dinamika aliansi politik yang kompleks antara kelompok Islamis dan partai-partai oposisi dalam pemilihan umum di Indonesia, dengan fokus pada pemilihan gubernur Jawa Barat tahun 2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan data exit poll, menyelidiki hubungan antara religiusitas, narasi politik-keagamaan, dan perilaku memilih. Meskipun kekuatan mobilisasi kelompok-kelompok Islamis menarik bagi partai-partai politik dalam menciptakan aliansi sementara, hal ini tidak menjamin kemenangan pemilu, bahkan di daerah konservatif sekalipun. Propaganda politik-keagamaan pada dasarnya mengkonsolidasikan pemilih yang cenderung Islamis. Meskipun tingkat religiusitas yang tinggi di antara para pemilih, strategi aliansi gagal menerjemahkan mobilisasi agama ini menjadi keberhasilan pemilu yang luas. Hal ini menggarisbawahi bahwa keberhasilan kampanye semacam itu secara kontekstual bergantung dan dibentuk oleh kondisi sosial-politik lokal. Namun, aliansi tersebut menawarkan pengaruh politik yang potensial, yang menunjukkan adanya interaksi yang berkelanjutan antara kelompok-kelompok Islamis dan partai-partai politik dalam lanskap pemilu di Indonesia. Eksplorasi ini berkontribusi pada pemahaman kita tentang dinamika mobilisasi Islamis dalam kontestasi pemilu yang bertingkat.

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