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Abstract

The 2019 presidential election showed many swing voters between the candidates who battled for the second time. This study seeks to understand the cause behind voters’ decisions to switch their voters and how millennial voters with postgraduate education backgrounds swing their votes. This study treats the votes cast by urban millennial postgraduate students as its unit of analysis. Additionally, it aims to find out whether social media has contribution to switch votes. We employed the Columbian and Michigan approach to the socio-psychological model as our conceptual framework and incorporated a modification of the concept of mass self-communication, which includes the immersion of mass communication into interpersonal communication. This study was carried out under a qualitative post-positivist paradigm and used a single holistic case study research method. This study uses pattern-matching logic analysis techniques. The results show that millennial voters swung their votes in the 2019 presidential election because of social variables, namely religion, ethnicity, and family relations. On the psychological variables, we found no role played by party identification but instead an evaluation of candidates, such as incumbent performance and identity coherence, and issue orientation, particularly about human rights and women’s issues. We also found that voters’ decision-making process was influenced by political memes, which played a role as a gate to further social group discussions and motivation to learn more about the candidates’ identities. Additionally, presidential debates’ presentation of candidates’ debating skills contributed to voting decisions. Mass self-communication, particularly on social media, was not done concerning politics as voters did not want their political affiliation to be known by other internet users.

Bahasa Abstract

Pemilihan presiden 2019 menunjukkan banyak peralihan pilihan terhadap para kandidat yang bertarung untuk kedua kalinya. Studi ini berusaha memahami penyebab di balik keputusan pemilih untuk beralih pilihan dan bagaimana pemilih milenial dengan latar belakang pendidikan pascasarjana menetapkan suara mereka. Studi ini menggunakan suara yang diberikan oleh mahasiswa pascasarjana milenial perkotaan sebagai unit analisisnya. Selain itu, studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah media sosial berkontribusi terhadap keputusan untuk beralih suara. Kami menggunakan pendekatan Columbia School dan Michigan School untuk model sosio-psikologis sebagai kerangka konseptual dan memasukkan modifikasi konsep komunikasi massa sendiri, yang memasukkan komunikasi massa ke dalam komunikasi interpersonal. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan paradigma kualitatif post-positivis dan menggunakan metode penelitian studi kasus holistik tunggal. Penelitian ini menggunakan teknik analisis logika pencocokan pola. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pemilih milenial memindahkan dukungannya pada Pilpres 2019 karena variabel sosial yaitu agama, suku, dan hubungan keluarga. Pada variabel psikologis, kami tidak menemukan peran yang dimainkan oleh identifikasi partai melainkan evaluasi kandidat, seperti kinerja incumbent dan koherensi identitas, dan orientasi masalah, khususnya tentang hak asasi manusia dan isu-isu perempuan. Kami juga menemukan bahwa proses pengambilan keputusan pemilih dipengaruhi oleh meme politik yang berperan sebagai gerbang untuk diskusi kelompok sosial lebih lanjut dan motivasi untuk mempelajari lebih lanjut tentang identitas kandidat. Selain itu, presentasi debat presiden tentang keterampilan debat kandidat berkontribusi pada keputusan pemungutan suara. Komunikasi diri secara masal, khususnya di media sosial, tidak dilakukan terkait politik karena pemilih tidak ingin afiliasi politiknya diketahui oleh pengguna internet lainnya.

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