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Abstract

This article examines why post-conflict autonomy consolidates into durable self-governance in some cases while remaining fragile and externally dependent in others. While Aceh has maintained stable self-governance since the 2005 Helsinki Agreement, Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council remains a fragmented authority sustained by external patronage. To explain this divergence, the article develops the Sustainable Autonomy Framework (SAF) and asks: under what conditions does post-conflict autonomy become viable and sustainable? The SAF argues that durability depends on the alignment of three mutually reinforcing pillars: elite legitimacy, resource sovereignty, and mediation credibility. Using a most-similar systems comparison of Aceh’s Free Aceh Movement and Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council, the findings show that Aceh achieved sustainable autonomy because locally legitimate elites controlled fiscal resources and operated within a credibly mediated peace process, generating accountability and institutional consolidation. By contrast, the STC remains fragile because external patronage, rentier dependency, and partisan mediation reinforce one another’s weaknesses. The SAF offers an integrative explanation applicable to other post-conflict autonomy cases.

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