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Abstract

As a new democracy, Tunisia is quite vulnerable to democratic erosion. The implementation of democracy in the country was quite effective during the leadership of Beji Caid Essebsi, resulting in a high democracy index driven by various policies that supported the implementation of this system. However, Tunisia’s quality of democracy significantly declined since President Kais Saied took power in 2019. The dissolution of Parliament, the prime minister's dismissal, the introduction of freedom of expression for council members, and unilateral electoral reforms aimed at consolidating his power are some cases of proof. This pattern raises questions about the recurring nature of democracy after presidential changes. Therefore, this research highlights the importance of studying the leadership traits and political beliefs of incumbent leaders in shaping the direction of democracy. This research aims to extrapolate the leadership characteristics of the two presidents, assessing their ideological orientation to determine their attitudes toward democracy and its impact. This study implements a combination of Leaders Trait Analysis (LTA) as part of a quantitative approach and Process Tracing techniques as a qualitative part by revealing public appearances (interviews and speeches) and combining them with historical events as empirical evidence that will show a comprehensive leader's personality to explain the cognitive and dispositional attributes that encompass various tendencies toward democratization.

Bahasa Abstract

Sebagai negara demokrasi baru, Tunisia cukup rentan terhadap pengikisan demokrasi. Penerapan demokrasi di negara tersebut cukup efektif pada masa kepemimpinan Beji Caid Essebsi menghasilkan indeks demokrasi yang tinggi yang didorong oleh berbagai kebijakan yang mendukung penerapan sistem ini. Namun, kualitas demokrasi Tunisia menurun secara signifikan sejak Presiden Kais Saied berkuasa pada tahun 2019. Pembubaran parlemen, pemecatan perdana menteri, pemberlakuan kebebasan berekspresi bagi anggota dewan, dan reformasi pemilu sepihak yang bertujuan untuk mengkonsolidasikan kekuasaannya adalah beberapa contohnya. Pola ini menimbulkan pertanyaan tentang sifat demokrasi yang berulang setelah pergantian presiden. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini menyoroti pentingnya mempelajari sifat-sifat kepemimpinan dan keyakinan politik dari para pemimpin yang sedang berkuasa dalam membentuk arah demokrasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengekstrapolasi karakteristik kepemimpinan kedua presiden, menilai orientasi ideologi mereka untuk menentukan sikap mereka terhadap demokrasi dan dampaknya. Penelitian ini mengimplementasikan kombinasi antara Leaders Trait Analysis (LTA) sebagai bagian dari pendekatan kuantitatif dan teknik Process Tracing sebagai bagian kualitatif dengan mengungkap penampilan publik (wawancara dan pidato) dan menggabungkannya dengan kejadian historis sebagai bukti empiris yang akan menunjukkan kepribadian pemimpin secara komprehensif untuk menjelaskan atribut kognitif dan disposisi yang mencakup berbagai kecenderungan terhadap demokratisasi.

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