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Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of real mismatch on the wages of workers with medium and higher education levels in Indonesia using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The data used in this study are derived from the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) conducted in August 2023 to identify instances of mismatch and analyze its impact on workers' wages. In 2023, the incidence of vertical mismatch only was recorded at 14.58 percent, horizontal mismatch only at 31.73 percent, and real mismatch reached 25.24 percent. The estimation results indicate that workers experiencing vertical mismatch only receive a wage premium, applicable to both undereducated only and overeducated only workers. In contrast, workers experiencing horizontal mismatch only and real mismatch incur a wage penalty. Moreover, differences in the patterns of mismatch status effects on wages were observed when the estimation was conducted on subsamples based on ISCO-08 skill levels, while also considering individual and occupational characteristics. These findings provide valuable insights into the impact of educational level and field mismatch on workers' welfare through wages, with relevant policy implications for improving efficiency and alignment between education and labor market needs.

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Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh real mismatch terhadap upah pekerja dengan tingkat pendidikan menengah dan tinggi di Indonesia menggunakan metode ordinary least squares. Data yang digunakan berasal dari Survei Angkatan Kerja Nasional (Sakernas) Agustus 2023 untuk mengidentifikasi kejadian mismatch dan menganalisis pengaruhnya terhadap upah pekerja. Pada tahun 2023, kejadian vertical mismatch only tercatat sebesar 14,58 persen, horizontal mismatch only sebesar 31,73 persen dan real mismatch mencapai 25,24 persen. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa pekerja yang mengalami vertical mismatch only mendapatkan wage premium, baik untuk pekerja undereducated only maupun overeducated only. Sebaliknya, pekerja yang mengalami horizontal mismatch only dan real mismatch memperoleh wage penalty. Selain itu, ditemukan perbedaaan pola pengaruh status mismatch terhadap upah pekerja ketika estimasi dilakukan pada subsampel berdasarkan skill level ISCO-08, serta mempertimbangkan karakteristik individu dan pekerjaan. Hasil temuan ini memberikan wawasan penting tentang dampak ketidaksesuaian tingkat dan bidang pendidikan terhadap kesejahteraan pekerja melalui upah, dengan implikasi kebijakan yang relevan untuk meningkatkan efisiensi serta keselarasan antara pendidikan dan kebutuhan pasar kerja.

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