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Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the determinants of poverty vulnerability in South Sulawesi by integrating spatial dimensions into risk estimation models. Using micro-data from the March 2024 National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) with individuals as the unit of analysis, this study applies the Vulnerability as Expected Poverty (VEP) and Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) methods, estimated through an integrated logistic regression model. Empirical results indicate that while the average vulnerability is relatively low, risk distribution is highly concentrated in specific regional clusters. Key findings reveal that health insurance ownership and household assets are the dominant protective factors that drastically reduce vulnerability risk, outweighing the influence of employment status. Contrary to common assumptions, female individuals demonstrate better resilience compared to males. Spatially, residing in poverty clusters (hotspots) proves to be an independent determinant that strictly increases risk, confirming the existence of spatial poverty traps. This study recommends a policy reorientation towards strengthening universal health protection and implementing place-based policies in vulnerability pockets.

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Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis determinan kerentanan kemiskinan di Sulawesi Selatan dengan mengintegrasikan dimensi spasial ke dalam model estimasi risiko. Menggunakan data mikro Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (Susenas) Maret 2024 dengan unit analisis individu, penelitian ini menerapkan metode Vulnerability as Expected Poverty (VEP) dan Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) yang diestimasi melalui model regresi logistik terintegrasi. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa meskipun rata-rata kerentanan penduduk relatif rendah, distribusi risiko sangat terkonsentrasi pada klaster wilayah tertentu. Temuan kunci mengungkap bahwa kepemilikan jaminan kesehatan dan aset rumah tangga merupakan faktor pelindung dominan yang menurunkan risiko kerentanan secara drastis, melebihi pengaruh status pekerjaan. Bertentangan dengan asumsi umum, individu perempuan terbukti memiliki resiliensi yang lebih baik dibandingkan laki-laki. Secara spasial, tinggal di wilayah klaster kemiskinan (hotspot) terbukti menjadi determinan independen yang meningkatkan risiko secara ekstrem, mengonfirmasi eksistensi perangkap kemiskinan spasial (spatial poverty trap). Penelitian ini merekomendasikan reorientasi kebijakan menuju penguatan perlindungan sosial kesehatan semesta dan intervensi pembangunan berbasis wilayah (place-based policies) di kantong-kantong kerentanan.

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