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Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the youth labor market vulnerability during COVID-19 pandemic crisis in Indonesia in terms of their incidence of unemployment, duration of job search, and the probability to experience work stoppage. We utilize the Indonesian Labor Force Survey in the periods of 2019-2021, to capture the period before and during the pandemic. A descriptive analysis is used to provide an overview of the youth labor market condition before and during the pandemic. The incidence of unemployment and the job search duration analyses are investigated utilizing the probit and non-parametric Kaplan-Meier method respectively. While the probability of experiencing work stoppage during the pandemic is estimated using the multinomial logit method. This study finds supporting evidence that the youth cohort is more vulnerable than their adult counterparts, both prior and during the pandemic. Specifically, youths are more likely to experience unemployment, longer job search duration, and experience work stoppage during the pandemic crisis, particularly in 2021 when the economy suffers from the most severe pandemic situation. Results from this study are expected to contribute to the existing literature regarding youths’ labor market amidst COVID-19 crisis, particularly in preventing the potential labor market scarring of these youth workers.

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Bahasa Abstract

Studi ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki kerentanan pasar tenaga kerja muda selama krisis pandemi COVID-19 di Indonesia dalam hal tingkat pengangguran, durasi pencarian kerja, dan kemungkinan terjadinya pemutusan hubungan kerja. Kami memanfaatkan Survei Angkatan Kerja Indonesia periode 2019-2021, untuk memotret periode sebelum dan saat pandemi. Analisis deskriptif digunakan untuk memberikan gambaran mengenai kondisi pasar tenaga kerja muda sebelum dan selama pandemi. Analisis peluang menganggur dan durasi pencarian kerja dianalisis masing-masing menggunakan metode probit dan non-parametrik Kaplan-Meier. Sedangkan kemungkinan terjadinya pemutusan hubungan kerja pada masa pandemi diestimasi dengan menggunakan metode multinomial logit. Studi ini menemukan bukti yang mendukung bahwa kelompok usia muda lebih rentan dibandingkan kelompok dewasa, baik sebelum maupun selama pandemi. Secara khusus, kaum muda lebih mungkin mengalami pengangguran, durasi pencarian kerja yang lebih lama, dan pemutusan hubungan kerja selama krisis pandemi, khususnya pada tahun 2021 ketika perekonomian mengalami situasi pandemi yang paling parah. Hasil dari penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan kontribusi pada literatur yang ada mengenai pasar tenaga kerja muda di tengah krisis COVID-19, khususnya dalam mencegah potensi terjadinya efek scarring bagi para pekerja muda.

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