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Abstract

This paper examines the long-term likelihood of a US-China war, particularly in light of Donald Trump's US presidential win. The two nations have consistently experienced strained relations and intense rivalry, especially throughout the Trump and Biden presidencies. Both leaders are worried about China's growing assertiveness. While these nations are still battling over trade, this situation could easily escalate into an armed conflict later on. Due to China's increasing economic power and America's reduced influence in specific areas, there are predictions of a change in how the world is governed. This paper examines the question of whether China will become a force for change in the current international system or choose to adhere to the existing U.S.-led order and concludes that it is not a simple choice between the two, because China might selectively change parts of the system while also accepting U.S. leadership in some areas. Employing both Kenneth Waltz's neo-realist theory and the principles of Morgenthau's realism, this paper aims to analyse the ever-present likelihood of war within an anarchic global environment. At present, the two nations have a strained relationship, and it is probable that they will keep trying to prevent the other from attacking. The research, echoing Waltz's perspective, indicated that the potential for war is ever-present in a world without central authority; however, nuclear arms have curtailed that threat. Unfortunately, Trump's return has caused the US to embrace protectionist trade policies and adopt a more severe approach to international relations. This has once again raised concerns about whether a war between China and the US remains inevitable.

Bahasa Abstract

Studi ini mengkaji kemungkinan jangka panjang terjadinya perang AS-Tiongkok, khususnya mengingat kemenangan Donald Trump dalam pemilihan presiden AS. Kedua negara secara konsisten mengalami hubungan yang tegang dan persaingan yang intens, terutama selama masa kepresidenan Trump dan Biden. Kedua pemimpin khawatir tentang meningkatnya sikap agresif Tiongkok. Meskipun kedua negara ini masih berselisih mengenai perdagangan, situasi ini dapat dengan mudah meningkat menjadi konflik bersenjata di kemudian hari. Karena meningkatnya kekuatan ekonomi Tiongkok dan berkurangnya pengaruh Amerika di bidang-bidang tertentu, ada prediksi tentang perubahan dalam cara dunia diatur. Artikel ini mengkaji pertanyaan apakah Tiongkok akan menjadi kekuatan perubahan dalam sistem internasional saat ini atau memilih untuk tetap berpegang pada tatanan yang dipimpin AS yang ada dan menyimpulkan bahwa itu bukanlah pilihan sederhana antara keduanya, karena Tiongkok mungkin secara selektif mengubah bagian-bagian dari sistem sambil juga menerima kepemimpinan AS di beberapa bidang. Dengan menggunakan teori neo-realis Kenneth Waltz dan prinsip-prinsip realisme Morgenthau, makalah ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kemungkinan perang yang selalu ada dalam lingkungan global yang anarkis. Saat ini, kedua negara memiliki hubungan yang tegang, dan kemungkinan besar mereka akan terus berusaha mencegah satu sama lain untuk menyerang.

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