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Abstract

This article briefly explains the correlation between Ethiopia’s ambitious GERD project and the potential shift in power distribution in the region known as the Horn of Africa. The GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) is a hydroelectric dam designed to drive economic growth by harnessing the Nile River as its core. Focusing on a regional-level analysis, this article will examine the relationship between the completion of the project and the shift in power distribution between Egypt as the local status-quo power, and Ethiopia as the regional challenger. Thus, the dramatic transition in regional structure is related to categorizing the Nile River as a finite natural resource. Using the multiple hierarchy model derived from power transition theory, this article sees that Egypt and Ethiopia view the Nile River as their primary national interest. Both countries perceive the reduced access to the river’s water as an existential threat to their sovereignty and safety. Thus, The GERD project becomes an instrument for Ethiopia to enhance its structural position as a challenger to Egyptian hegemony and gain the right to a more equitable water allocation. Thus, the completion of the project could pose a real threat not only to Egypt’s structural position but also to its survival as a state.

Bahasa Abstract

Artikel ini menjelaskan secara singkat korelasi antara proyek GERD yang ambisius di Ethiopia dan potensi perubahan distribusi kekuatan di wilayah yang dikenal sebagai Tanduk Afrika. GERD (Grand Ethiopian Rennaisance Dam) merupakan bendungan pembangkit listrik tenaga air yang dirancang untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan memanfaatkan Sungai Nil sebagai intinya. Dengan berfokus pada analisis tingkat regional, artikel ini akan mengkaji hubungan antara penyelesaian proyek dan perubahan distribusi kekuatan antara Mesir sebagai kekuatan lokal status-quo, dan Ethiopia sebagai penantang regional. Dengan demikian, transisi dramatis dalam struktur regional terkait dengan pengkategorian Sungai Nil sebagai sumber daya alam yang terbatas. Menggunakan model hierarki ganda yang berasal dari teori transisi kekuatan, artikel ini melihat bahwa Mesir dan Ethiopia menganggap Sungai Nil sebagai kepentingan nasional utama mereka. Kedua negara menganggap bahwa berkurangnya akses terhadap air sungai tersebut, merupakan ancaman eksistensial terhadap kedaulatan dan keselamatan mereka masing-masing. Proyek GERD lantas menjadi instrumen Ethiopia untuk meningkatkan posisi strukturalnya sebagai penantang hegemoni Mesir, demi mendapatkan hak atas alokasi air yang lebih adil. Dengan demikian, penyelesaian proyek ini dapat menimbulkan ancaman nyata tidak hanya terhadap posisi struktural Mesir tetapi juga terhadap kelangsungan hidup Mesir sebagai sebuah negara.

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