•  
  •  
 

Abstract

This research aims to analyse the factors contributing to the ongoing conflict in the South China Sea between China, Indonesia, and the United States. China's aspiration to control the Natuna Islands has been evident since the 1990s, with a marked escalation since 2009. The authors used a mixed methods approach, including a literature review and bibliometric analysis, to analyse 49 documents from the Scopus database. Data were analysed using the 50 Conflict Resolution Activities framework by Jonamay Lambert and Selma Meyers. The study reveals that China exhibits a “Pit Bull” conflict style in 2019 documents, while the United States and Indonesia demonstrate a “Worker Bees” conflict style in 2019, 2020, and 2023 documents. Indonesia is expected to be diligent in 2021, 2022, and 2023 documents. Conflict escalation in the South China Sea involving China, Indonesia, and the United States experienced a spike in 2019-2020 documents, resembling the behaviour of a "Pit Bull". However, it is estimated that the intensity of the conflict will decrease in 2021-2023, leading to a more peaceful and cooperative dynamic.

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang berkontribusi terhadap konflik yang sedang berlangsung di Laut Cina Selatan antara Tiongkok, Indonesia, dan Amerika Serikat. Aspirasi Tiongkok untuk menguasai Kepulauan Natuna telah terlihat sejak tahun 1990an, dan meningkat tajam sejak tahun 2009. Para penulis menggunakan pendekatan metode campuran, termasuk tinjauan literatur dan analisis bibliometrik, untuk menganalisis 49 dokumen dari database Scopus. Data dianalisis menggunakan kerangka 50 Kegiatan Resolusi Konflik oleh Jonamay Lambert dan Selma Meyers. Studi tersebut mengungkapkan bahwa Tiongkok menampilkan gaya konflik “Pit Bull” pada dokumen tahun 2019, sedangkan Amerika Serikat dan Indonesia menunjukkan gaya konflik “Lebah Pekerja” pada dokumen tahun 2019, 2020, dan 2023. Indonesia diharapkan menunjukkan pendekatan yang konsisten pada dokumen tahun 2021, 2022, dan 2023. Eskalasi konflik di Laut Cina Selatan yang melibatkan Tiongkok, Indonesia, dan Amerika Serikat mengalami lonjakan pada dokumen tahun 2019-2020, menyerupai perilaku “Pit Bull”. Namun intensitas konflik diperkirakan akan menurun pada tahun 2021-2023 sehingga mengarah pada dinamika yang lebih damai dan kooperatif.

References

Abdin, Z., Prabantariksob, R. M., Fahmy, E., & Farhan, A. (2022). Revolution in military affairs (RMA) by Indonesian armed forces towards competitive advantage. Decision Science Letters, 11(2022), 105–112. https://doi.org/10.5267/dsl.2022.12.002

Alenezi, D. A. (2024). US rebalance strategy to Asia and US-China rivalry in South China Sea from the perspective of the offensive realism. Review of Economics and Political Science, 9(2), 102–115. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-10-2019-0132

136

Anwar, D. F. (2023). Indonesia’s hedging plus policy in the face of China’s rise and the US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region. Pacific Review, 36(2), 351–377. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2022.2160794

Arumbinang, M. H., Gunawan, Y., & Anggriawan, R. (2021). The fishing rights conflict in the south china sea between vietnam and china. Sriwijaya Law Review, 5(2), 205– 217. https://doi.org/10.28946/SLREV.VOL5.ISS2.875.PP205-217

Baas, J., Schotten, M., Plume, A., Côté, G., & Karimi, R. (2020). Scopus as a curated, high-quality bibliometric data source for academic research in quantitative science studies. Quantitative Science Studies, 1(1), 377–386. https://doi.org/10.1162/qss_a_00019

Bapat, N. (2020). Will covid-19 cause a war? Understanding the case of the U.S. And China. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 26(3), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2020-0047

Borroz, N., & Marston, H. (2017). How Trump can Avoid War with China. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, 4(3), 613–620. https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.191

Budiana, M., Fedryansyah, M., Djuyandi, Y., & Pancasilawan, R. (2019). Indonesia military power under the increasing threat of conflict in the South China Sea. Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, 13(4), 259–274.

Chairil, T., Putri, R. A. A. K., & Pertiwi, S. B. (2022). Road to ASEAN Political Security Community Vision 2025: Understanding Convergence and Divergence in ASEAN Voting Behaviors in the UNGA. Journal of ASEAN Studies, 10(2), 263–284. https://doi.org/10.21512/jas.v10i2.8175

Chubb, A. (2021). PRC assertiveness in the South China sea: Measuring continuity and change, 1970–2015. In International Security (Vol. 45, Issue 3). https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00400

Cuong, N. M., Chelabi, K., Anjum, S., Sateeshchandra, N. G., Samoylenko, S., Silwizya, K., & Nghiem, T. (2024). US-China global competition and dilemma for Vietnam’s strategic choices in the South China Sea conflict. Heritage and Sustainable Development, 6(1), 349–364. https://doi.org/10.37868/hsd.v6i1.550

Daojiong, Z., & Gong, L. (2021). China and southeast Asia in the 2000s: Tension management in the maritime space. British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 23(2), 248–261. https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148120980944

Darmayadi, A., & Purnamasari, E. N. (2022). Indonesia – China Relations in the Natuna Sea Dispute Resolution: Struggle for Sovereignty. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research, 9(1), 41–48. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i1.870

Eck, N. J. Van, & Waltman, L. (2009). VOSviewer : A Computer Program for Bibliometric Mapping Nees Jan van Eck and Ludo Waltman REPORT SERIES. ERIM Report Series Reference No. ERS-2009-005-LIS, November(2).

Global Jurnal Politik Internasional 26(1)

137

Amril Hanif Zaki, Ninda Soraya, Addarsyah Dhia Putra, and Surwandono

Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Antigua and Barbuda. (2024). Wang Yi: China Will Take Justified Actions to Defend Its Rights in Accordance with the Law and Respond to Provocation with Legitimate Countermeasures. Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Antigua and Barbuda. http://ag.china- embassy.gov.cn/eng/zgxw/202403/t20240308_11256429.htm

Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of Indonesia. (2020). China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson’s comment on US Secretary of State’s press statement on the South China Sea. Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of Indonesia. http://id.china- embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgdt/202007/t20200716_2049176.htm

Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of Indonesia. (2022). China, Indonesia eye to strengthen military cooperation. Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of Indonesia. http://id.china- embassy.gov.cn/eng/zgyyn/202211/t20221121_10978599.htm

Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of Indonesia. (2023). Working Together to Make Our Oceans a Peaceful, Tranquil, Clean and Beautiful Home with Fairness, Justice and Prosperity. Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of Indonesia. http://id.china- embassy.gov.cn/eng/xwdt/202311/t20231108_11175790.htm

Esser, F., & Vliegenthart, R. (2017). Comparative Research Methods. In The International Encyclopedia of Communication Research Methods (pp. 1–22). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118901731.iecrm0035

Ferreira, S., Santos, S., & Santo, P. E. (2021). Social Media Engagement Through Video Advertising: Informativeness and Self Brand Connection as Predictors. In Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing (Vol. 1352). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3- 030-71782-7_23

Guo, L., Mays, K., & Wang, J. (2019). Whose Story Wins on Twitter?: Visualizing the South China Sea dispute. Journalism Studies, 20(4), 563–584. https://doi.org/10.1080/1461670X.2017.1399813

Han, Z., Cook, R. J., & Ohle, M. (2019). The Thucydides Trap and the Korean Peninsula: So why Won’t the USA and China Get Caught? Journal of Chinese Political Science, 24(1), 105–127. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-018-09595-7

Heslehurst, N., Dinsdale, S., Sedgewick, G., Simpson, H., Sen, S., Summerbell, C. D., & Rankin, J. (2015). An evaluation of the implementation of maternal obesity pathways of care: A mixed methods study with data integration. PLoS ONE, 10(5), 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127122

Hung, V. M., Binh, N. T., Hiep, T. X., & Thao, B. T. (2023). US-China Rivalry In Southeast Asia Region: A Study On The South China Sea Case. Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, 9(1), 336–351. https://doi.org/10.47305/JLIA2391342v

138

Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2019). Indonesia and Viet Nam Urge the EEZ Delimitation Settlement and Maritime Partnership Improvement. Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. https://kemlu.go.id/portal/en/read/497/berita/ Indoenesia-and#!

James Reilly. (2013). China’s economic statecraft: turning wealth into power. Jonamay, Lambert; Selma, M. (2015a). 50 Activities for Conflict Resolution. Human

Resource Development Press, Inc. Jonamay, Lambert; Selma, M. (2015b). 50 Activities for Conflict Resolution. In Human

Resource Development Press, Inc. Human Resource Development Press, Inc.

Kartikasari, A. (2019). Indonesia’s Image from China’s Perspective on South China Sea Dispute (A Preliminary Study on China’s Perception on Indonesia). Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional, 21(2), 176. https://doi.org/10.7454/global.v21i2.404

Kementerian Luar Negeri Republik Indonesia. (2020). Press Statement By Minister Of Foreign Affairs Of Indonesia Visit Of The U.S. Secretary Of State, Hon. Michael R. Pompeo Jakarta, 29 Oktober 2020. Kementerian Luar Negeri Republik Indonesia. https://kemlu.go.id/portal/id/read/1832/view/press-statement-by-minister-of- foreign-affairs-of-indonesia-visit-of-the-us-secretary-of-state-hon-michael-r- pompeo-jakarta-29-oktober-2020

Kementerian Luar Negeri Republik Indonesia. (2022). Opening Speech Dr. Yayan G.H. Mulyana Head of Foreign Policy Agency Strategy Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia at the 31st Workshop on Managing Conflicts in the South China Sea, 24 August 2022. Kementerian Luar Negeri Republik Indonesia. https://kemlu.go.id/portal/id/read/3937/pidato/opening-speech-dr-yayan-gh- mulyana-head-of-foreign-policy-agency-strategy-ministry-of-foreign-affairs-of- the-republic-of-indonesia-at-the-31st-workshop-on-managing-conflicts-in-the- south-china-sea-24-august-2

Kim, J., & Druckman, D. (2020). Shelved sovereignty or invalid sovereignty? The South China Sea negotiations, 1992–2016. Pacific Review, 33(1), 32–60. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2018.1535520

Luo, C., Sun, S., & Wan, G. (2021). The impact of political relations on international trade: China–Philippines island dispute as a quasi-natural experiment. World Economy, 44(11), 3422–3441. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13070

Michael. R. Pompeo. (2020). U.S. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea.

Michael, R. pompeo. (2019). A Free And Open Indo-Pacific Advancing a Shared Vision. In Department Of State United States Of America (Vol. 1, Issue 5). https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Free-and-Open-Indo-Pacific- 4Nov2019.pdf

Michael Tkacik. (2018). Understanding China’s goals and strategy in the south China sea:

Global Jurnal Politik Internasional 26(1)

139

Amril Hanif Zaki, Ninda Soraya, Addarsyah Dhia Putra, and Surwandono

Bringing context to a revisionist systemic challenge – Intentions and impact. Defense and Security Analysis, 34(4), 321–344. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2018.1529092

Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2023a). Indonesia’s Initiative Accelerates South China Sea Code of Conduct Negotiations. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Indonesia. https://kemlu.go.id/portal/en/read/5153/berita/indonesias-initiative-accelerates- south-china-sea-code-of-conduct-negotiations#:~:text=Jakarta%2C Indonesia – In Indonesia’s current,China (01%2F09).

Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2023b). Indonesia Promotes Enhancement of Technical Cooperation in South China Sea Conflict Management. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Indonesia. https://kemlu.go.id/portal/en/read/5127/berita/indonesia- promotes-enhancement-of-technical-cooperation-in-south-china-sea-conflict- management

Mohammad Iqbal Nasution. (2020). The South China Sea, Southeast Asia’s Patrimony, and Everybody’s Own Backyard. U.S. Embassy Jakarta. https://id.usembassy.gov/the-south-china-sea-southeast-asias-patrimony-and- everybodys-own-backyard/

Nainggolan, P. P. (2013). Kepentingan Strategis Amerika Serikat di Asia Pasifik. Politica, 4(1), 77–104.

Nandyatama, R. W. (2019). Beyond Brinkmanship: The Implication of South China Sea Conflicts on China’s Soft Power in Southeast Asia. Journal of ASEAN Studies, 7(1), 18–39. https://doi.org/10.21512/jas.v7i1.5684

Naufal Ahmad Rijalul Alam, Asyraf Isyraqi Jamil, & Mohamad Azrien Mohamed Adnan. (2022). The Current Research of Pesantren Muhammadiyah in Indonesia: A Bibliometric Study from 2011-2020. Al-Afkar, Journal For Islamic Studies, 5(4), 215–232. https://doi.org/10.31943/afkarjournal.v5i4.367

Patricia, P. (2022). Questioning China’s Peaceful Development: A Mahanian Sea Power Analysis of Blue Water Navy Accumulation. Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional, 24(2), 252–276. https://doi.org/10.7454/global.v24i2.1237

Pertiwi, S. B. (2020). Repositioning Indonesia in the Changing Maritime Landscape of the Indo-Pacific Region. Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional, 22(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.7454/global.v22i1.438

Prajuli, W. A. (2015). China Threat Perceptions in Southeast Asia: Problems of Bilateral Interactions. Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.7454/global.v15i1.18

Pramono, W. T., Darmawan, A., Deffinika, I., & Soelistijo, D. (2020). Geopolitical Implication on Contested Waters; Comparison between Indonesia and the Philippines Strategy to Overlapping South China Sea Waters. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 412(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-

140

1315/412/1/012034

Prasetya, D. M., Haffsari, P. P., & Estriani, H. N. (2020). Identity Matters: Indonesia’s approach towards territorial disputes in South-east Asia. Maritime Affairs, 16(2), 89– 105. https://doi.org/10.1080/09733159.2020.1836775

Ralph Jennings. (2022, April). Indonesia Leans Further Toward US Amid Growing Maritime Dispute With China. VOA News Website.

Rifawan, A., Bustaman, A., Wibowo, K., Setiawan, M., Muljarijadi, B., & Hadiyanto, F. (2020). The implication of trade war on contested leadership between United States and China in Southeast Asia. In Contemporary Chinese Political Economy and Strategic Relations (Vol. 6, Issue 1, pp. 187–215).

Rizani, N. (2021). ASEAN Way: Managing Expectation in the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional, 23(2), 218. https://doi.org/10.7454/global.v23i2.666

Ross, R. S. (2021). China-Vietnamese Relations in the Era of Rising China: Power, Resistance, and Maritime Conflict. Journal of Contemporary China, 30(130), 613– 629. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2020.1852737

Satyawan, I. A. (2018). Scientific cooperation to respond climate change in the South China Sea: The study of tides and sea level change. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 200(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755- 1315/200/1/012036

Shahin, S. (2023). Affective Polarization of a Protest and a Counterprotest: Million MAGA March v. Million Moron March. American Behavioral Scientist, 67(6), 735– 756. https://doi.org/10.1177/00027642221091212

Shih, Y. C., Chang, Y. C., Gullett, W., & Chiau, W. Y. (2020). Challenges and opportunities for fishery rights negotiations in disputed waters – A Taiwanese perspective regarding a fishing boat case incident. Marine Policy, 121(November), 103755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103755

Soriano, R. M., Catabay, M. Q., & Quijano, M. G. (2023). In a road of trying times: Unraveling the lived experiences of students in the new normal. International Journal of Evaluation and Research in Education, 12(2), 675–683. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijere.v12i2.23027

Surwandono, S., & Herningtyas, R. (2021). Transformasi Gaya Konflik Aktivis Perempuan Dalam Issue Sosial Keagamaan. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Program Pengabdian Masyarakat, 1713–1723. https://doi.org/10.18196/ppm.25.479

Sutrimo Sumarlan, Sudibjo, A. G. D. (2021). Indonesia defence diplomacy strategy in resolving china claims to Indonesia exclusive economic zone in north natuna sea. Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business and Government, 27(02), 1. https://doi.org/10.47750/cibg.2021.27.02.033

Global Jurnal Politik Internasional 26(1)

141

Amril Hanif Zaki, Ninda Soraya, Addarsyah Dhia Putra, and Surwandono

T. Ibragimova, A., M. Azmukhanova, A., R. Aitmagambetov, D., A. Kamaljanova, T., & Zh. Kenzhalina, G. (2019). US-China Conflict Of Interest In The Context Of Developing The Asia-Pacific Region. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 7(6), 736–741. https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2019.76111

Teff-Seker, Y., Mackelworth, P. C., Vega Fernández, T., McManus, J., Nam, J., Tuda, A. O., & Holcer, D. (2020). Do Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) and Track Two Processes Support Transboundary Marine Conservation? Lessons From Six Case Studies of Maritime Disputes. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7(November), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.593265

Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations 1961, 2 (2005). https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/9_1_1961.pdf

Vuković, S., & Alfieri, R. (2018a). Bumping, precedents, and de-escalation in South China Sea: Options for the United States and China. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, 5(3), 665–671. https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.248

Vuković, S., & Alfieri, R. (2018b). Bumping, precedents, and de-escalation in South China Sea: Options for the United States and China. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, 5(3), 665–671. https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.248

Wang, S., Su, F., Ye, L., & Jing, Y. (2022). Disinformation: A Bibliometric Review. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(24). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416849

Wu, S. (2020). Preventing confrontation and conflict in the South China Sea. China International Strategy Review, 2(1), 36–47. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-020- 00043-x

Xie, B., Zhu, X., & Grydehøj, A. (2020). Perceiving the Silk Road Archipelago: Archipelagic relations within the ancient and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road. Island Studies Journal, 15(2), 55–72. https://doi.org/10.24043/isj.118

Yeh, Y. Y., Wu, C. K. S., & Huang, W. hao. (2021). China’s soft power and US public opinion. Economic and Political Studies, 9(4), 447–460. https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2021.1933766

Yu, C., & Chang, Y.-C. (2023). China’s Incentives and Efforts against IUU Fishing in the South China Sea. Sustainability, 15(9), 7255. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15097255

Zhang, C., & Pu, X. (2019). Introduction: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap? Journal of Chinese Political Science, 24(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-019-09609-y

Zhang, C., Zhang, D., & Blanchard, P. (2022). International Broadcasting During Times of Conflict: A Comparison of China’s and Russia’s Communication Strategies. Journalism Practice. https://doi.org/10.1080/17512786.2022.2140445

Download

Share

COinS