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Abstract

This research aims to analyse Russian foreign policy toward Ukraine from 2014 to 2022. It uses a dual logical plural approach from Marxist IR Theory. This approach greatly emphasises the importance of two systemic logics, namely capitalism and geopolitics. Since this approach is used in the realm of foreign policy analysis, contextualisation of the level analysis is needed. In this case, the dual logical plural approach proposes a distinctive description of these levels of analysis. International condition refers to the imperialism of the present world order, domestic factor refers to the development of state capitalism, and actors refer to the alliance of political elite and capitalist class of state. Based on those distinctive features, this research concludes several crucial points. First, the expansionist economic manoeuvre of the European Union and the imperialist manoeuvre of the US played crucial roles in affecting Russia's foreign policy toward Ukraine from 2014-2022. Second, the specific history of Russian capitalism development, which gave birth to the emergence of regressive Caesarism, also plays a significant role. Third, the development of Ukraine's capitalism and its class dynamics play a central role in navigating Russia's or Western states' manoeuvres. The dominance of Western Ukraine, which particularly articulates the interests of Ukraine's middle class and Western states' geopolitical or economic interests, significantly forces Russia to change the nature of its policy from annexation to invasion

Keywords: American imperialism, European Union expansion, Russian capitalism, regressive caesarism

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kebijakan luar negeri Rusia ke Ukraina di tahun 2014-2022. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan dua logika plural Marxian. Pendekatan dua logika plural ini mengkalkulasikan logika sistemik kapitalisme dan juga logika sistemik geopolitik dalam membaca dunia internasional. Pada konteks kebijakan luar negeri, kontekstualisasi pendekatan ini mengikuti logika berpikir level analisis yang terkandung dalam analisis kebijakan luar negeri. Untuk itu, pendekatan dua logika plural mengetengahkan analisis yang cukup berbeda dengan mendeskripsikan dunia internasional dalam struktur imperialisme, keadaan domestik dengan perkembangan kapitalisme suatu negara, dan aktor dengan aliansi elit politik dan kelas kapitalis suatu negara. Berdasarkan ciri yang berbeda ini, analisis dari penelitian ini menghasilkan beberapa kesimpulan utama. Pertama, pada tataran internasional, manuver ekspansionis ekonomi Uni Eropa dan imperialisme Amerika ke Ukraina memainkan peran krusial dalam mengondisikan kebijakan luar negeri Rusia yang agresif kepada Ukraina. Kedua, trajektori perkembangan historis spesifik kapitalisme Rusia dan kemunculan Putin sebagai kaisarisme regresif mengondisikan dorongan Rusia untuk melakukan kebijakan yang agresif terhadap Ukraina. Ketiga, perkembangan spesifik kapitalisme dan dinamika kelas di Ukraina dalam menavigasi manuver Rusia maupun negara-negara Barat memainkan peran sentral di situasi ini. Dominasi Ukraina Barat, yang secara spesifik mengartikulasikan kepentingan kelas menengah Ukraina yang kongruen dengan kepentingan negara Bara dalam politik domestik Ukraina, secara signifikan, membuat Rusia mesti mengubah natur dari kebijakannya yang sebelumnya menggunakan aneksasi kemudian menjadi invasi.

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