•  
  •  
 

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health issue, particularly in Southeast Asia, where its impact extends beyond public health to affect economic performance. This study evaluates the economic implications of TB incidence on gross domestic product (GDP) growth across eight ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2020. We employed a panel data regression approach, utilizing Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effects Model (FEM), and Random Effects Model (REM) to analyze the relationship between TB incidence and economic growth. The dataset included annual GDP figures, TB incidence rates, foreign direct investment (FDI), labor force size, and trade openness, sourced from international databases. The most appropriate model was selected based on Chow and Hausman tests, with FEM being the preferred model for its ability to account for country-specific effects. The FEM analysis revealed a significant negative impact of TB incidence on GDP, with a reduction of approximately 6.69% in GDP growth for each unit increase in TB incidence. Simulations showed that countries with high TB prevalence, such as the Philippines and Cambodia, experienced substantial economic losses, while reductions in TB incidence could lead to notable economic gains, particularly in Indonesia and Thailand. The study highlights the considerable economic burden of TB on ASEAN countries and emphasizes the importance of integrating TB control measures into economic development strategies. Effective TB prevention and treatment could substantially mitigate economic losses and promote sustainable growth. Policymakers are encouraged to invest in TB healthcare infrastructure and consider the economic benefits of reducing TB incidence in their health policies.

References

Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: The influence of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of Political Economy , 115 (6). https://doi.org/10.1086/529000

Baker, S., Bloom, N., Davis, S., Kost, K., Sammon, M., & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19. In Review of Corporate Finance Studies (Vol. 9, Issue April). https://doi.org/10.3386/w26945

Bedir, S. (2016). Health Care Expenditures and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Economic and Business Advances , 4 (2). https://doi.org/10.13189/aeb.2016.040202

Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2000). The health and wealth of nations. Science, 287(5456), 1207-1209.

Chaker, L., Falla, A., van der Lee, S.J., Mendis, S., Chowdhury, R., Goessens, B.M., Franco, O.H., 2015. The global impact of non-communicable diseases on macro-economic productivity: a systematic review. European Journal of Epidemiology, 30(5), pp.357–395. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-015-0026-5.

Dinçer, H., & Yüksel, S. (2019). Identifying Causal Relationships between Health Expenditures and Economic Growth: Application in E7 Countries. Journal of Health Systems and Policy , 1 (1).

Erçelik, G. (2018). The relationship between health expenditure and economic growth in Turkey from 1980 to 2015. Dergipark.Org.Tr, Journal of Politics, Economy and Management (JOPEM), Vol.1, Issue 1.

Franke, G. R. (2010). Multicollinearity. In Wiley International Encyclopedia of Marketing . https://doi.org/10.1002/9781444316568.wiem02066

Foo, C.D., Shrestha, P., Wang, L., Du, Q., García-Basteiro, A.L., Abdullah, A.S., et al., 2022. Integrating tuberculosis and noncommunicable diseases care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs): A systematic review. PLoS Medicine, 19(1), p.e1003899. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003899

Fox, G. J., Mitnick, C. D., Benedetti, A., Chan, E. D., Becerra, M., Chiang, C. Y., ... & Collaborative Group for Meta-Analysis of Individual Patient Data in MDR-TB. (2013). Surgery as an adjunctive treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: an individual patient data meta-analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 13(8), 625-632.

Fuady A, Houweling TAJ, Mansyur M, Richardus JH. Catastrophic total costs in tuberculosis-affected households and their determinants since Indonesia's implementation of universal health coverage. Infect. Dis. Poverty. 2018;7(1):3. doi: 10.1186/s40249-017-0382-3

Gizaw, N., Abafita, J., & Merra, T.M. (2022). Impact of coffee exports on economic growth in Ethiopia; Empirical investigation. Compelling Economics and Finance , 10 (1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2041260

Goenka, A., Liu, L., & Nguyen, M. H. (2014). Infectious diseases and economic growth. Journal of Mathematical Economics , 50 (1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmateco.2013.10.004

Grimard, F., & Harling, G. (2004). The Impact of Tuberculosis on Economic Growth .

Hyle, E.P., Naidoo, K., Su, A.E., El-Sadr, W.M. and Freedberg, K.A., 2014. HIV, tuberculosis, and noncommunicable diseases: What is known about the costs, effects, and cost-effectiveness of integrated care? JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 67(Suppl 1), pp.S87–S95. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0000000000000254.

Kargi, B. (2014). Labor Force Participation Rate and Economic Growth: Observations for Türkiye. Journal of Management and Social Sciences , 4 (4).

Lai, T. C., Chiang, C. Y., Wu, C. F., Yang, S. L., Liu, D. P., Chan, C. C., ... & Lin, H. H. (2016). Ambient air pollution and risk of tuberculosis: a cohort study. Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 73(1), 56-61.

Laumbach, R. J., & Kipen, H. M. (2012). Respiratory health effects of air pollution: Update on biomass smoke and traffic pollution. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, 129(1), 3-11.

Laxminarayan, R., Chow, J., & Shahid-Salles, S. A. (2006). Intervention cost-effectiveness: Overview of main messages. Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries.

Lee, K., & Thang, N. M. (2019). Tuberculosis control and its relationship with economic growth in Southeast Asia. Public Health Reviews, 40, 1-12.

Mannucci, P. M., & Franchini, M. (2017). Health effects of ambient air pollution in developing countries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 14(9), 1048.

Murray, C. J., Ortblad, K. F., Guinovart, C., Lim, S. S., Wolock, T. M., Roberts, D. A., ... & Hay, S. I. (2014). Gobal, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet, 384(9947), 1005-1070.

Öztürk, S., & Topcu, E. (2014). Health Expenditures and Economic Growth: Evidence from G8 Countries. International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research , 2 (6), 256–261.

Piabuo, S. M., & Tieguhong, J. C. (2017). Health expenditure and economic growth - literature review and analysis between the economic community for central African countries (CEMAC) and selected African countries. Health Economics Review , 7 (1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13561-017-0159-1

Portnoy, A., Arcand, J.L., Clark, R.A., Weerasuriya, C.K., Mukandavire, C., Bakker, R., Patouillard, E., Gebreselassie, N., Zignol, M., Jit, M., White, R.G. , & Menzies, N. A. (2023). Potential impact of the introduction of a new tuberculosis vaccine on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study. PLoS Medicine , 20 (7). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004252

Sachin Silva, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Rifat Atun, Eric Goosby, Michael Reid (2021). Economic impact of tuberculosis mortality in 120 countries and the cost of not achieving the Sustainable Development Goals tuberculosis targets: a full-income analysis. The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214109X(21)00299-0

Senaviratna, NAMR, & A. Cooray, T.M.J. (2019). Diagnosing Multicollinearity of Logistic Regression Models. Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics . https://doi.org/10.9734/ajpas/2019/v5i230132

Sharma, R. (2018). Health and economic growth: Evidence from 143 years of dynamic panel data. PLOS ONE , 13 (10). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0204940

Smith, K. R., & Jones, C. P. (2022). Health and economic progress in Southeast Asia: Tuberculosis as a case study. Journal of Global Health, 12, 03001.

Ukwaja, K. N., Alobu, I., Abimbola, S., & Hopewell, P. C. (2012). Household catastrophic payments for tuberculosis care in Nigeria: incidence, determinants, and policy implications for universal health coverage. Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 2(1), 1-10.

UNDP. 2023. Human Development Index Database. Diakses pada 19 Maret 2023, dari: https://hdr.undp.org/data-center

Verguet, S., Lim, S., Murray, C. J., & Gakidou, E. (2017). The consequences of tuberculosis on health and economic outcomes. Health Economics, 26(6), 742-756.

Wang, Y., & Liu, H. (2017). Public health infrastructure and tuberculosis control in developing countries. International Journal of Public Health, 62(2), 245-250.

World Health Organization. (2023). TB . https://www.who.int/news-room/fact- sheets/%0Adetail/tuberculosis

Bahasa Abstract

Tuberkulosis (TB) tetap menjadi masalah kesehatan global yang utama, terutama di Asia Tenggara, dimana dampaknya tidak hanya terbatas pada kesehatan masyarakat tetapi juga memengaruhi kinerja ekonomi. Studi ini mengevaluasi implikasi ekonomi dari insidensi TB terhadap pertumbuhan PDB di delapan negara ASEAN dari tahun 2000 hingga 2020. Kami menggunakan pendekatan regresi data panel, dengan memanfaatkan Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effects Model (FEM), dan Random Effects Model (REM) untuk menganalisis hubungan antara insidensi TB dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dataset mencakup angka PDB tahunan, tingkat insidensi TB, investasi langsung asing (FDI), ukuran angkatan kerja, dan keterbukaan perdagangan yang bersumber dari basis data internasional. Model yang paling tepat dipilih berdasarkan uji Chow dan Hausman, dengan FEM sebagai model yang diutamakan karena kemampuannya untuk memperhitungkan efek spesifik negara. Analisis FEM menunjukkan dampak negatif yang signifikan dari insidensi TB terhadap PDB, dengan penurunan sekitar 6,69% dalam pertumbuhan PDB untuk setiap peningkatan unit insidensi TB. Simulasi menunjukkan bahwa negara-negara dengan prevalensi TB tinggi, seperti Filipina dan Kamboja, mengalami kerugian ekonomi yang substansial, sementara pengurangan insidensi TB dapat menghasilkan keuntungan ekonomi yang signifikan, terutama di Indonesia dan Thailand. Studi ini menyoroti beban ekonomi yang besar dari TB terhadap negara-negara ASEAN dan menekankan pentingnya mengintegrasikan langkah-langkah pengendalian TB ke dalam strategi pembangunan ekonomi. Pencegahan dan pengobatan TB yang efektif dapat secara substansial mengurangi kerugian ekonomi dan mendorong pertumbuhan berkelanjutan. Pembuat kebijakan didorong untuk berinvestasi dalam infrastruktur kesehatan TB dan mempertimbangkan manfaat ekonomi dari pengurangan insidensi TB dalam kebijakan kesehatan mereka.

Download

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.