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Abstract

Tourism sector is widely known as one of economic sectors that can be the engine of economic growth in an effort to reduce poverty in a country. However, growth in the tourism sector can be influenced by safety factors. Tourists tend to avoid tourism destination areas with high crime rates in order to avoid becoming victims of crime. This study aims to analyze the effect of crime on the number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia by using four proxies of crime, which are total crime rate, property crime rate, violent crime rate, and fraud crime rate. This study utilizes a panel data with Fixed Effect Model Within-Group (FEM WG) regression as the main model and Instrumental Variable – Two-Stage Least Squares (IV-2SLS) model to test the endogeneity of the crime variables. The estimation result shows that crime has a negative effect on tourist arrivals in Indonesia. Fraud crime tends to have a stronger effect on tourist arrivals than property and violent crimes. The negative effect of crime tends to be stronger in popular tourism destination areas.

Bahasa Abstract

Sektor pariwisata dikenal luas sebagai salah satu sektor ekonomi yang dapat menjadi mesin pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam upaya mengurangi kemiskinan di suatu negara. Walaupun demikian, pertumbuhan pada sektor pariwisata dapat dipengaruhi oleh faktor keamanan. Wisatawan cenderung akan menghindari daerah destinasi pariwisata dengan tingkat kriminalitas yang tinggi agar terhindar dari menjadi korban kejahatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kriminalitas terhadap jumlah kedatangan wisatawan di Indonesia dengan menggunakan empat proksi kriminalitas, yaitu tingkat kriminalitas secara total, tingkat kriminalitas berbasis properti, tingkat kriminalitas berbasis kekerasan, dan tingkat kriminalitas berupa penipuan. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel dengan teknik analisis regresi Fixed Effect Model Within-Group (FEM WG) sebagai model utama dan model Instrumental Variable – Two-Stage Least Squares (IV-2SLS) untuk menguji endogenitas dari variabel kriminalitas. Hasil estimasi dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa kriminalitas memiliki pengaruh yang negatif terhadap jumlah kedatangan wisatawan di Indonesia. Kriminalitas berupa penipuan cenderung memiliki pengaruh yang lebih kuat terhadap jumlah kedatangan wisatawan dibandingkan dengan kriminalitas berbasis properti dan kekerasan. Pengaruh negatif dari kriminalitas cenderung lebih kuat di daerah destinasi pariwisata yang populer.

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