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Abstract

This study investigates how fuel-price shocks and motorisation intensity affect income inequality across 34 Indonesian provinces (2016–2025). Using Random Effects, DiD, Synthetic Control, and Local Projections, we find energy shocks amplify inequality-exacerbating effects of motorisation in high-density provinces. Using a vehicle-density-based treatment indicator, the DiD estimate yields a conditional ATT of 0.39 percentage points (p = 0.442) as suggestive evidence. Impulse-response functions project a transitory Gini increase of up to 0.012 under extreme scenarios, reverting within 3–4 years. Our regional typology identifies eight resilient and six critically vulnerable provinces, providing a foundation for targeted policy interventions.

Bahasa Abstract

Studi ini menginvestigasi interaksi guncangan harga BBM dan intensitas motorisasi terhadap ketimpangan pendapatan di 34 provinsi Indonesia (2016–2025). Menggunakan Random Effects, Difference-in-Differences (DiD), Synthetic Control, dan Local Projections, kami menemukan guncangan energi mengamplifikasi dampak ketimpangan akibat motorisasi di provinsi berkepadatan tinggi. Melalui treatment indicator berbasis kepadatan kendaraan, estimasi DiD menghasilkan ATT kondisional 0,39 poin persentase (p = 0,442) sebagai suggestive evidence. Respons impuls memproyeksikan kenaikan Gini sementara hingga 0,012 pada skenario ekstrem, yang konvergen dalam 3–4 tahun. Tipologi regional mengidentifikasi delapan provinsi beresiliensi kuat dan enam provinsi rentan kritis yang memerlukan intervensi kebijakan terarah.

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