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Abstract

Abstract This study examines the dynamic relationship between renewable energy consumption, total energy use, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions in Indonesia over the period 1990–2021 using an ARDL approach. The results show a stable long-run relationship with quick adjustment after shocks. In the long run, energy consumption is associated with higher CO₂ emissions, reflecting the continued dominance of fossil fuels. Renewable energy helps reduce emissions in the short term, but its long-term impact remains statistically insignificant. GDP does not show a significant effect, suggesting that meaningful decarbonization will require a more intensive shift in the energy mix.

Keywords: ARDL, renewable energy, economic growth, energy use

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini mengkaji keterkaitan dinamis antara konsumsi energi terbarukan, total konsumsi energi, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan emisi CO₂ di Indonesia menggunakan pendekatan ARDL selama tahun 1990–2021, termasuk sebelum dan sesudah COVID-19. Hasil menunjukkan adanya kointegrasi jangka panjang serta mekanisme penyesuaian yang relatif cepat pasca guncangan jangka pendek. Konsumsi energi berpengaruh positif terhadap emisi CO₂ dalam jangka panjang, mencerminkan dominasi energi fosil. Energi terbarukan menurunkan emisi dalam jangka pendek, namun belum signifikan dalam jangka panjang. PDB tidak berpengaruh signifikan, sehingga dekarbonisasi memerlukan transisi energi yang lebih intensif.

Keywords: ARDL, energi terbarukan, pertumbuhan ekonomi

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Additional Files
Dataset for ARDL using R 1990-2021.xlsx (11 kB)
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