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Abstract

Indonesia has renewable energy potential spread across various islands. However, limited interconnection between regions is an obstacle to energy distribution. The purpose of this study is to analyze the planning of renewable energy (RE) power plants covering eight types: Geothermal Power Plants (PLTP), Solar Power Plants (PLTS), Wind Power Plants (PLTB), Biomass Power Plants (PLTBm), Biogas Power Plants (PLTBg), and Waste Power Plants (PLTSa). The analysis was conducted in four main system regions in Indonesia, namely Java-Bali, Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi, which are currently not interconnected. The study is based on the availability of renewable energy potential, production forecasts, and installed capacity in Indonesia in 2022. The linear programming method is used to allocate renewable energy potential to minimize generation costs or LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity). The results of the study show that the Java-Bali, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi regions can achieve the renewable energy mix target of 34% of total generation in 2030. Meanwhile, the Sumatra region is projected to be able to achieve the renewable energy mix target of 46% in the same year. Furthermore, all regions are projected to achieve 100% renewable energy mix by 2050. The development of PLTS and PLTM/MH is a top priority due to its large potential and low LCOE, with a scale and time adjusted to regional needs.

Bahasa Abstract

Potensi energi terbarukan di Indonesia tersebar di lokasi-lokasi terpisah antar pulau, keterbatasan interkoneksi pulau menghambat aliran energi terbarukan ke daerah-daerah yang membutuhkan pasokan listrik lebih besar dan memiliki potensi energi terbarukan yang terbatas. Penelitian ini menentukan jenis pembangkit energi terbarukan dengan biaya pembangkitan paling rendah yang harus diprioritaskan pengembangannya untuk mencapai target bauran energi terbarukan minimal 34% dari total pembangkitan listrik tahun 2030 sampai dengan memenuhi skenario 100% energi terbarukan tahun 2050. Penelitian ini mempertimbangkan ketersediaan potensi energi terbarukan, prakiraan produksi, dan kapasitas yang sudah terpasang di Indonesia pada tahun 2022, khususnya pada Sistem Jawa – Bali, Sumatera, Kalimantan, dan Sulawesi. Program linier digunakan sebagai metode perhitungan dalam mengalokasikan potensi energi terbarukan yang tersedia di tiap wilayah sistem untuk menghasilkan total biaya pembangkitan paling rendah atau minimal. Biaya pembangkitan / LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity) menjadi indikator dalam menentukan prioritas pengembangan pembangkit energi terbarukan. 8 jenis pembangkit listrik energi terbarukan dalam penelitian : Pembangkit Listrik Panas Bumi (PLTP), Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya (PLTS), Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air (PLTA), Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Mini dan Mikro Hidro (PLTM/MH), Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Bayu (PLTB), Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Biomassa (PLTBm), Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Biogas (PLTBg), dan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Sampah (PLTSa). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan Sistem Jawa-Bali, Sistem Sumatera, Sistem Kalimantan, dan Sistem Sulawesi dengan potensi energi terbarukan yang dimiliki tiap wilayah dapat memenuhi target bauran energi terbarukan sebesar 34% (sistem Jawa – Bali, Kalimantan, dan Sulawesi) dan 46% (Sistem Sumatera) dari total pembangkitan pada tahun 2030 dan 100% pada tahun 2050. Pengembangan PLTS dan PLTM/MH merupakan prioritas utama di semua wilayah, mengingat biaya pembangkitan yang rendah dan potensi besar yang dimiliki. Walaupun semua sistem mengandalkan PLTS dan PLTM/MH, besaran dan waktu pengembangannya berbeda-beda sesuai dengan karakteristik dan kebutuhan masing-masing wilayah.

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