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Abstract

Trade openness is widely associated with stronger medium- to-long-term economic growth, yet its distributional consequences within countries, particularly in developing economies, remain contested. This paper examines the relationship between trade openness and spatial inequality in four major ASEAN economies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, over the period 2012–2019. Spatial inequality is measured using Theil’s Index based on provincial-level GDP per capita, while trade openness is proxied by the trade-to-GDP ratio. Employing pooled OLS and fixed-effects estimations, the analysis controls for key structural factors such as economic development, population size, urbanization, government expenditure, and the number of spatial units. The results indicate that, contrary to much of the prevailing literature, higher trade openness is associated with lower spatial inequality in most model specifications. This finding suggests that, in the ASEAN-4 context, trade integration may generate more geographically inclusive outcomes, potentially reflecting export structures, resource-based production, and labor market dynamics distinct from those in advanced economies. While the results should be interpreted cautiously given data limitations, the study contributes new empirical evidence to debates on trade and inequality in developing regions and highlights the importance of subnational perspectives in assessing the distributive effects of globalization.

Bahasa Abstract

Keterbukaan perdagangan secara konseptual maupun empiris terkait erat dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka menengah-panjang. Meskipun demikian, konsekuensi distributifnya di dalam negara, khususnya di negara berkembang, masih menjadi perdebatan. Artikel ini menganalisis hubungan antara keterbukaan perdagangan dan ketimpangan spasial di empat negara ASEAN—Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, dan Filipina—dalam periode 2012–2019. Ketimpangan spasial diukur menggunakan Indeks Theil berbasis PDB per-kapita tingkat provinsi, keterbukaan perdagangan diproksikan melalui rasio perdagangan terhadap PDB, dengan kontrol faktor struktural seperti tingkat pendapatan, jumlah penduduk, urbanisasi, belanja pemerintah, dan jumlah unit wilayah.  Model diestimasi dengan menggunakan pooled OLS dan fixed-effect, Hasil estimasi menunjukkan perbedaan dengan sebagian besar studi terdahulu, dimana tingkat keterbukaan perdagangan yang lebih tinggi berkorelasi dengan ketimpangan spasial yang lebih rendah. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa dalam konteks ASEAN-4, integrasi perdagangan dapat menghasilkan dampak yang lebih inklusif secara geografis, kemungkinan mencerminkan struktur ekspor, basis produksi berbasis sumber daya, serta dinamika pasar tenaga kerja yang berbeda dari negara maju. Meski perlu ditafsirkan secara hati-hati karena keterbatasan data, studi ini memberikan bukti empiris baru mengenai perdebatan terkait perdagangan dan ketimpangan di negara berkembang serta menegaskan pentingnya perspektif sub-nasional dalam menilai dampak distribusional dari globalisasi.

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