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Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of nickel downstreaming on poverty levels in Sulawesi by examining the effectiveness of smelter development and the raw ore export ban policy as resource-based industrialization strategies. The primary contribution of this research lies in its identification strategy, which employs a staggered Difference-in-Differences approach with two-way fixed effects using panel data from 54 regencies/municipalities over the period 2010–2023. The baseline regression results show that the average effect of smelters is not statistically significant in reducing poverty. On the other hand, the raw mineral export ban policy is found to significantly reduce poverty. However, there is no evidence that this policy moderates or amplifies the effect of smelters on poverty. Nevertheless, the event study results reveal that the presence of smelters has a significant and consistent negative effect on poverty rates, emerging a few years after smelters begin operating—indicating that smelters contribute to poverty reduction in the medium term (delayed benefit). Nonetheless, it does not necessarily constitute a form of maslahah.

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini mengevaluasi dampak hilirisasi nikel terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Sulawesi, dengan menelaah efektivitas pembangunan smelter dan kebijakan larangan ekspor bijih mentah sebagai strategi industrialisasi berbasis sumber daya. Strategi identifikasi menggunakan pendekatan staggered Difference-in-Differences dengan two-way fixed effect pada data panel 54 Kabupaten/Kota periode 2010–2023 menjadi kontribusi utama dari penelitian ini. Efek rata-rata smelter dalam baseline regression menunjukkan bahwa keberadaan smelter tidak signifikan dalam mengurangi kemiskinan. Di sisi lain, kebijakan larangan ekspor bijih mentah ditemukan signifikan mengurangi kemiskinan. Namun, tidak ditemukan bukti bahwa kebijakan tersebut memoderasi atau memperkuat dampak smelter terhadap kemiskinan. Meskipun demikian, hasil event study justru menunjukkan bahwa keberadaan smelter memiliki dampak negatif yang signifikan dan konsisten terhadap tingkat kemiskinan, setelah beberapa tahun sejak smelter mulai beroperasi, menegaskan bahwa kontribusi smelter terhadap pengurangan kemiskinan bersifat jangka menengah (delayed benefit). Namun, belum tentu dapat dikatakan sebagai maslahah.

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