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Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Abstract

The main purpose of this study was to examine whether the health variable as proxied by government health insurance participation and the infrastructure variable as a proxy for steady road conditions were correlated with the electability of political dynasties in the district/city elections in Indonesia in 2017-2020. This study tested using an average of 5 years before the 2017, 2018 and 2020 elections and the sample used was 508 districts/cities. This study uses a probit and a heck-probit regression model. The results of the selection bias control show that the health interest variable, namely BPJS Non-PBI, significantly reduces the probability of being elected to a political dynasty. This negative direction is a form of retrospective economic voting in political dynasties. Voters consider that the government has no role in providing free health facilities. Voters must pay BPJS Non-PBI membership dues through their employers or pay them independently. Meanwhile, the infrastructure interest variable in the form of steady road conditions significantly increases the probability of being elected to a political dynasty. This indicates that improving road conditions is effective in increasing the electability of political dynasties and the community makes road conditions a tool for retrospective economic voting in political dynasties.

Bahasa Abstract

Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji apakah variabel kesehatan dan variabel infrastruktur berkorelasi pada keterpilihan dinasti politik di pilkada Kabupaten/Kota di Indonesia tahun 2017-2020. Penelitian ini menguji dengan menggunakan data rata-rata 5 tahun sebelum pilkada 2017, 2018 dan 2020 dan sample yang digunakan adalah 508 Kabupaten/Kota yang mengikuti pilkada. Penelitian ini menggunakan model regresi probit dan model regresi heckprobit untuk menguji apakah probabilita keterpilihan dinasti politik dipengaruhi oleh variabel kesehatan yang diproksikan oleh kepersertaan jaminan kesehatan milik pemerintah dan variabel infrastruktur yang diproksikan kondisi jalan mantap. Hasil kontrol selection bias menunjukan bahwa interest variable kesehatan yaitu BPJS Non-PBI signifikan menurunkan probabilita keterpilihan dinasti politik. Arah negatif ini merupakan bentuk retropective economic voting pada dinasti politik, dimana setiap kenaikan 1% kepesertaan BPJS Non-PBI menurunkan probabilita keterpilihan dinasti politik. Voters menganggap bahwa pemerintah tidak memiliki peran dalam penyediaan fasilitas kesehatan yang gratis. Voters harus membayar iuran kepesertaan BPJS Non-PBI melalui pemberi kerja atau membayar sendiri secara mandiri. Sedangkan interest variable infrastruktur berupa kondisi jalan mantap signifikan meningkatkan probabilita keterpilihan dinasti politik. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa politik perbaikan kondisi jalan efektif meningkatkan elektabilitas dinasti politik dan masyarakat menjadikan kondisi jalan sebagai alat retrospective economic voting pada dinasti politik.

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