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Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to analyze to what extent the restriction policy on grants and social assistance budget allocation may prevent political budget cycles (PBC) in the era of a regional election on regions that had incumbent candidates, by taking the case of the simultaneous regional election of 2017 in 94 regencies/cities in Indonesia. By utilizing fixed effect regression on panel data from 2014 through 2018, this research finds that there are no significant differences in the growth of grants and social assistance budget in the political years of 2016-2017 between regencies/cities that had incumbent candidates and those that did not. There are indications that the restriction policy that was implemented in 2016 is associated with the absence of political budget cycles (PBC) in the regions that had incumbent candidates.

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis sejauh mana kebijakan restriksi pemberian hibah dan bantuan sosial dapat mencegah adanya political budget cycles (PBC) di era pemilihan kepala daerah pada daerah-daerah yang memiliki calon incumbent, dengan mengambil kasus pelaksanaan Pilkada Serentak Tahun 2017 di 94 kabupaten/kota di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan fixed effect regression atas data panel selama periode tahun 2014-2018, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa tidak ada perbedaan yang signifikan terkait pertumbuhan anggaran belanja hibah dan bantuan sosial pada tahun politik 2016- 2017 antara kabupaten/kota yang memiliki calon incumbent dan tidak. Terdapat indikasi bahwa kebijakan restriksi pemberian hibah dan bantuan sosial yang diberlakukan di tahun 2016 memiliki korelasi positif dengan tidak adanya political budget cycles (PBC) di daerah-daerah yang memiliki calon incumbent.

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