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Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Abstract

This study examines the causes of high and low mortgage rates in a country using panel data from 17 countries in Asia (China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand), Australia (Australia), Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom) and America (Canada, United States) to see how conditions are in these countries and their institutional housing finance system. By assuming that there is a simultaneous relationship at the mortgage rates which is a two-way relationship, where the dependent variable has an influence on the independent variable. The estimation results of the model using the simultaneous equation also show that in almost all countries studied, the majority of housing finance is using banks as the institutions that provide housing loans, the three-stage least square analysis that is carried out confirms this simultaneously between developed and developing countries where the source of funds, profit, efficiency and volatility of interest rates and inflation have an effect on the ups and downs of the mortgage rate on the supply side. On the demand side, differences in conditions in developed and developing countries also produce different results where simultaneously economic growth, population growth has a significant effect, but on the other hand housing loans, urban population, inflation, house price index are only influential in developed countries, while the exchange rate only affects developing countries. Furthermore, the availability of funds with low yields, increased efficiency of government intervention and public awareness are some of the implications that need to be taken from the results of this study

Bahasa Abstract

Penelitian ini mengkaji hal-hal yang menyebabkan tinggi dan rendahnya suku bunga pinjaman perumahan di suatu negara dengan menggunakan data panel dari 17 negara di Asia (China, Hongkong, Indonesia, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand), Australia (Australia), Eropa (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom) dan Amerika (Canada, United States) untuk melihat bagaimana kondisi di negara tersebut dan sistem pembiayaan perumahannya secara institusional. Dengan mengasumsikan bahwa terdapat hubungan simultan pada mortgage rate yang merupakan hubungan dua arah, dimana variabel dependen memiliki pengaruh terhadap variabel independennya. Hasil estimasi model menggunakan persamaan simultan juga menunjukkan bahwa di hampir semua negara yang diteliti pembiayaan perumahannya mayoritas menggunakan bank sebagai lembaga yang memberikan pinjaman perumahannya, analisis three-stage least square yang dilakukan mengkonfirmasi hal tersebut secara simultan antara negara maju dan berkembang dimana sumber dana, profit, efisiensi serta volatilitas interest rate dan inflasi berpengaruh atas naik turunnya mortgage rate pada sisi supply. Pada sisi demand, perbedaan kondisi negara maju dan berkembang juga memberikan hasil yang berbeda dimana secara bersamaan pertumbuhan ekonomi, pertumbuhan penduduk berpengaruh signifikan, namun disisi lain pinjaman perumahan, urban population, inflasi, house price index ternyata hanya berpengaruh di negara maju, sedangkan exchange rate hanya berpengaruh di negara berkembang. Selanjutnya ketersediaan dana dengan imbal hasil yang rendah, peningkatan efisiensi intervensi pemerintah dan kesadaran masyarakat merupakan beberapa implikasi yang perlu diambil dari hasil penelitian ini.


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