Persistensi Bahan Bakar Fosil: Analisis Path Dependence dalam Bauran Konsumsi-Energi Indonesia Periode 1980–2015

Authors

Made Harimbawa, Magister Perencanaan Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan FEB UI

Abstract

Current fossil fuels use has created two major issues: environmental damage from greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. In the recent decades, development in science and technology along with increasing demand for shifting to cleaner and renewable energy sources have not yet changed the proportion of fossil fuel in Indonesia energy-consumption mix. One explanation to this phenomenon is the existence of path dependence that locks Indonesia’s technological systems and institutions into cycles of fossil fuels consumption, which in turn limiting the development of alternative technologies. Analysis using equilibrium dependent model suggests that this is the case: fossil fuels persistence in Indonesia is very high. The existence of path dependence is creating barriers, making it difficult for Indonesia to break out from its dependence to oil, coal, and natural gas.

Bahasa Abstract

Penggunaan bahan bakar fosil saat ini telah menciptakan dua masalah utama: kerusakan lingkungan dari emisi gas rumah kaca dan keamanan energi. Dalam beberapa dekade terakhir, perkembangan ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi seiring dengan meningkatnya permintaan untuk beralih ke sumber energi yang lebih bersih dan terbarukan belum mengubah proporsi bahan bakar fosil dalam campuran konsumsi energi di Indonesia. Satu penjelasan untuk fenomena ini adalah keberadaan ketergantungan sistem dan institusi teknologi Indonesia ke dalam siklus konsumsi bahan bakar fosil, yang pada gilirannya membatasi pengembangan teknologi alternatif. Analisis menggunakan model dependen kesetimbangan menunjukkan bahwa ini adalah kasus: persistensi bahan bakar fosil di Indonesia sangat tinggi. Adanya ketergantungan sistem menciptakan hambatan, sehingga sulit bagi Indonesia untuk keluar dari ketergantungannya pada minyak, batu bara, dan gas alam.

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Recommended Citation

Harimbawa, Made (2016) "Persistensi Bahan Bakar Fosil: Analisis Path Dependence dalam Bauran Konsumsi-Energi Indonesia Periode 1980–2015," Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi: Vol. 11: No. 2, Article 5.
Available at: https://scholarhub.ui.ac.id/jke/vol11/iss2/5