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Abstract

This Presentation examines Indonesia’s recent declaration to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPPA), as announced by President Widodo during a State visit to the United States in October 2015, and his subsequent announcement that this accession would occur within two years. The Presentation explores both the implications for Indonesia of TPPA membership as well as the likelihood of achieving the President’s two-year aspiration. It focuses on one of the more controversial elements of the TPPA, namely, the inclusion of Investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions, particularly in light of former President Yudhoyono’s 2014 determination to terminate all its bilateral investment treaties with ISDS provisions. In joining the TPPA, Indonesia commits to its ISDS provisions, likely without carve-outs or reservations. The change may perhaps be driven by a perceived imperative to open up Indonesian economy to greater international investment, and to compete with other growing ASEAN economies. However, the future of the TPPA is not necessarily assured, with the U.S. Presidential election and U.S. domestic politics having a major impact on its future status, or even very existence. President Obama considers it a key element of his Presidential legacy, and has Congressional agreement for a “fast-track” vote, but both Presidential candidates, as well as members of both parties in Congress, have at times soundly criticised or even rejected the TPPA. It appears increasingly unlikely that he will succeed in achieving ratification as he enters his Presidency’s “lame duck” period. The Presentation also examines the implications for Indonesia and for the TPPA if the United States unduly delays or even rejects its own domestic ratification of the TPPA.

Bahasa Abstract

Tulisan ini akan meninjau pernyataan Presiden Widodo yang menyatakan bahwa Indonesia akan mengikuti Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) saat kunjungan kenegaraan ke Amerika Serikat di bulan Oktober 2015, serta pernyataan lanjutan yang menyatakan bahwa aksesi TPPA akan diharapkan selesai dalam waktu dua tahun. Tulisan ini mengeksplorasi baik dampak Indonesia menjadi peserta TPPA dan juga kemungkinan jangka waktu aksesi Indonesia dalam waktu dua tahun sebagaimana yang diharapkan oleh Presiden. Tulisan ini berfokus pada unsur kontroversial dari TPPA, yaitu adalah pencantuman ketentuan penyelesaian sengketa investor dengan Negara (ISDS). Hal ini khususnya dalam kaitan dengan kebijakan Presiden Yudhoyono pada tahun 2014 yang akan mengakhiri perjanjian investasi bilateral yang memuat ketentuan ISDS. Dalam menjadi anggota TPPA, Indonesia akan mengikatkan diri pada ketentuan ISDS yang ada, dengan kemungkinan tanpa pengecualian atau pensyaratan. Perubahan tersebut kemungkinan didorong oleh pembukaan ekonomi Indonesia terhadap investasi internasional, dan untuk bersaing dengan ekonomi negara ASEAN lainnya yang tumbuh. Akan tetapi, masa depan TPPA tidak dapat dijamin dengan pengaruh pemilihan Presiden Amerika Serikat dan politik domestik dari AS. Presiden Obama menganggap bahwa TPPA adalah bagian penting dari warisan masa kepresidenannya, dan telah membuat persetujuan dengan Kongres untuk membuat pemungutan suara jalur cepat (“fast-track” vote), akan tetapi, kedua kandidat Presiden yang dan kedua partai di Kongres mengiritisi TPPA bahkan menolak TPPA secara tegas. Kemungkinan, Presiden Obama tidak akan berhasil untuk mencapai ratifikasi TPPA mengingat telah memasuki masa akhir kepresidenannya. Tulisan ini juga meninjau implikasi TPPA terhadap Indonesia jika AS menunda atau bahkan menolak ratifikasi dari TPPA.

References

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